EMERGING CURRENCIES
Asian units mostly down; peso, baht at multi-month lows
By Kevin Yao
Reuters
First Posted 12:25:00 05/13/2008
SINGAPORE – (UPDATE) Most Asian currencies fell Tuesday amid jitters about a global slowdown and high oil prices, with the Philippine peso and Thai baht hitting multi-month lows.
The peso fell as far as 42.755 per dollar, down about a quarter of a percent to its weakest level since late November.
One trader in Manila said the peso was trading in line with other Asian currencies against a firmer dollar.
But he added: "There is potential for further peso weakness as inflation concerns are still prevalent."
The peso, Asia's top performer in 2007 with a 19 percent gain versus the dollar, has been weighed down in recent months by concerns about slowing exports and rising oil prices.
It has lost 3.0 percent versus the dollar so far this year.
The South Korean won briefly hit 1,047.6 per dollar, down almost 0.6 percent from late Asian trade Friday.
Markets in South Korea were closed Monday for a holiday.
Tim Condon, head of Asia research at ING, said he believed the won's decline -- amounting to just over 10 percent versus the dollar so far this year -- was overdone.
But he cautioned that investors should not be betting on a won recovery yet because the rhetoric from policy makers seemed to suggest they wanted to see the won weaker.
"Getting in the way of it seems like a dangerous strategy," he said.
The Thai baht slipped as far as 32.28 per dollar, down about 0.4 percent from late Asian trade Monday to its weakest level since Feb. 25.
Analysts believe the won and the peso, along with the Indian rupee, are particularly vulnerable to rising global oil prices and high risk aversion among investors in the credit crisis.
"We would favor the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit as relative outperformers," said Emmanuel Ng, a currency strategist at OCBC Bank.
SELECTIVE BETS
Analysts believe the Singapore dollar, ringgit and Chinese yuan are more resilient to the global woes as they are backed by trade surpluses and an official stance favoring stronger currencies to control inflation.
The Singapore dollar rose as far as 1.3637 to the US dollar, up about 0.4 percent from late Asian trade Monday.
Traders said its near-term outlook would hinge on the US dollar, which held steady against the Japanese yen and euro Tuesday.
"There was some unwinding last week so it should not be as volatile now, but players might start loading positions (in the Singapore dollar) again, thinking that the whole episode is over," said a Singapore-based trader, referring to the US dollar's recent rally.
Many investors expect the Singapore dollar to rise further, on top of a gain of 5.2 percent so far this year.
The ringgit steadied near 3.21 per dollar after going as high as 3.199.
The yuan fell as far as 6.9949 per dollar, down a tenth of a percent from Monday's close, after a strong earthquake Monday hit the southwestern province of Sichuan, where the death toll has risen to around 10,000.
But analysts still expect further yuan gains as Beijing tries to tame inflation, which accelerated to 8.5 percent in April.
Analysts at UBS maintained their forecast that the yuan would rise to 6.58 per dollar by the end of 2008.
"We think this week's data-set could signal to the market that the policy of allowing the yuan to appreciate by around 10 percent per annum is still valid despite the static renminbi (yuan) in April," they said in a note.
On Monday China posted a solid trade surplus of $16.7 billion for April, despite the U.S. economic slowdown. China's central bank also Monday raised banks' reserve requirements for the fourth time this year to mop up liquidity.
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