THE DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE expects palay (rice) production in the first quarter of 2009 to expand by 6.35 percent to 3.987 million metric tons, based on farmers' planting intentions.

According to data from the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, the area planted to palay is seen to expand by 5.45 percent and yield-per-hectare, by 0.86 percent.

"Among the factors that can contribute to these gains are the continuous release of irrigation water, restoration and rehabilitation of some irrigation facilities, late planting of seeds from the quick turnaround program of the DA, replanting of flood-damaged areas and the availability of seeds and fertilizer subsidy," BAS said in a Nov. 11 report.

Under the revised Rice Self-Sufficiency Plan 2009-2013, the government has lowered its palay production target for next year to 17.7 million MT, from 18.5 million MT.

For 2008, palay production may expand by only 3.98 percent to 16.89 million MT from 16.24 million MT a year ago. The government's target production is 17.33 million MT.

Philippine Rice Research Institute executive director Ronilo A. Beronio said in an earlier interview that the production targets had to be revised to more realistic levels and in accordance to the current challenges that the sector is facing. Among these are volatile weather, water scarcity, rice land conversion, he said.

In the meantime, the BAS also reported that barring unforeseen events, corn production for the first quarter of 2009 may reach 2.05 million MT, or 3.02 percent higher the 1.99 million MT a year ago.

It added that corn harvest area was likewise expected to expand by 5.60 percent.

However, yield-per-hectare was seen to decrease by 2.45 percent to 2.87 MT per hectare from 2.94 MT per hectare, as a result of lower fertilizer use due to high prices.