Likelihood of prolonged El Niño lower than 50%, says US agency

THE LIKELIHOOD that the current occurrence of El Niño will persist in the second quarter of 2016 will be lower than 50 percent following its expected peak during the coming northern hemisphere winter, according to climate experts in the United States.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in its latest monthly outlook that a strong El Niño continued last October as indicated by well above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

For El Niño to be present, the American agency requires that SSTs be observed at at least 0.5 degree Celsius above average for at least three consecutive months.

“The most recent Oceanic Niño Index value—observed in August-October—is 1.7 degrees Celsius,” the agency said.

The NOAA, through its Climate Prediction Center, also observed other atmospheric and oceanic anomalies that indicated “a strong and mature” El Niño episode, such as low-level westerly wind anomalies—the winds moving west instead of east—over the western to east-central tropical Pacific.

“The forecaster consensus remains nearly unchanged, with the expectation that this El Niño could rank among the top three strongest episodes…going back to 1950,” the agency said.

“El Niño will likely peak during the northern hemisphere winter 2015-2016, with a transition to El Niño Southern Oscillation-neutral anticipated during the late spring or early summer 2016,” it added.

The NOAA meant that the chance of El Niño still occurring in April, May and June next year was “just under” 50 percent.

Last week, the Department of Agriculture said the government was pushing for the popular adoption of cisterns and other water-harvesting facility projects to help address the effects of El Niño as well as the long-term prospects of a water shortage in the Philippines.

The campaign is being done through the interagency National Convergence Initiative for Sustainable Rural Development (NCI-SRD), which brings together the departments of agriculture, agrarian reform, natural resources and local government.