Signs of El Niño waning

“The El Niño event that has been anticipated since April has not materialized,” the Agricultural Market Information System said. FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines–Signs that the El Niño phenomenon is coming are getting cold, according to an inter-agency body administered by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Based on the latest Market Monitor report from the Agricultural Market Information System (Amis), climate watchers have shifted their focus on the southern hemisphere.

“The El Niño event that has been anticipated since April has not materialized,” the Amis said.

Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific did not meet the criteria for El Niño although they were warmer than average and the corresponding atmospheric features were yet to appear, it added.

Citing projections as of mid- and late-October referred to by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Amis noted that the probability of an El Niño event was above 50 percent during the 2014-2015 southern hemisphere growing season.

“However, it is not expected to be a strong event,” it said.

Still, Amis observed that overall conditions for global rice production were “generally favorable.”

The latest forecast global output for the mid-2014 to mid-2015 period is pegged at 496 million tons, a decrease of two million tons from the previous period’s output.

Over the same timeframe, global supply is expected to increase by four million tons to 678 million tons—including residual stocks.

Of such supply, global consumption will account for 500 million tons or eight million tons more than previously.

In September, FAO economist Concepcion Calpe said in a statement that rice supplies appeared to be ample worldwide, but stocks were very much concentrated in a small number of countries and often owned by governments.

“This means that these countries can very much influence world prices, by deciding whether to let those supplies flow to the market or not,” Calpe said. “The fact that Thailand is still limiting sales of the huge rice volume held in public warehouses has been one of the principal factors underpinning world prices in recent months.”

In the Philippines last October, the National Food Authority awarded a contract to the government of Thailand for the delivery within this year of 300,000 tons of milled rice.