Thai central bank hikes rate again, keeps 2022 growth outlook

BANGKOK  – Thailand’s central bank raised its key interest rate modestly for a second straight meeting on Wednesday to tame 14-year high inflation and ensure a continued economic recovery, while maintaining its 2022 growth projection of 3.3 percent.

The Bank of Thailand’s (BOT), among Asia’s less hawkish central banks, said in a statement the policy rate should be normalized gradually, but indicated it was ready to respond with a bigger rate increases if necessary.

The recovery of Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy has laggedbehind that of other countries as its vital tourism sector has just started to rebound while investment remains sluggish, allowing the central bank to go slowly on rate hikes, despite bigger increases by many peers.

The BOT’s monetary policy committee, voted unanimously to increase the one-day repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 1 percent.

Of 25 economists surveyed by Reuters, 22 had expected a quarter-point hike and three predicted a half-point increase. The BOT delivered a similar rise in August, which was the first rate increase in nearly four years.

“The committee judges that the Thai economy will continue to recover but with increased inflation risks. The policy rate should be normalised in a gradual and measured manner to the level that is consistent with sustainable growth in the long term,” it said in the statement.

“The committee is ready to adjust the size and timing of policy normalisation should the growth and inflation outlook shift from the current assessment.”

It maintained its 2022 economic growth outlook of 3.3 percent seen in June, and trimmed its 2023 growth forecast to 3.8 percent from 4.2 percent for 2023.

The BOT raised its 2022 headline inflation forecast to 6.3 percent from 6.2 percent seen earlier, and its 2023 estimate to 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent.

The baht currency extended losses after the BOT’s rate hike was announced and was last down 0.8 percent.

Earlier this month, Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput said the BOT’s goal was to ensure a smooth recovery for the economy, which he expected to return to its pre-pandemic level by late this year or early next.

In the April-June period, the economy grew 2.5 percent from a year earlier and 0.7 percent from the previous three months.

Last year’s economic growth of 1.5 percent was among the lowest in Southeast Asia.

Headline inflation was 7.86% in August, a 14-year high, and far above the BOT’s target range of 1 percent to 3 percent.

The BOT on Wednesday said the baht weakness was not affecting the overall economy and inflation would start falling gradually late this year and return to the target range next year.

It also forecast tourist arrivals of 9.5 million for this year, and more than doubling to 21 million in 2023, bigger than the projections made in June.

It also forecast exports to grow 8.2 percent this year, up from the 7.9 percentseen in June