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Economists expect more job losses in US

Recession finally becomes reality in 2008


Associated Press
First Posted 22:29:00 04/06/2008

Filed Under: Economy, Business & Finance,Employment

WASHINGTON, D.C.?Dismal employment data released Friday is not just the latest sign the US economy is in recession, it is also a warning that this one could hurt more than the previous two.

The loss of almost 250,000 jobs in the first quarter of this year is already comparable to job losses at the start of recessions past. Once the data are revised, analysts say, they are likely to show a labor market?and broader economy?in even deeper trouble.

Sagging employment data are a single indicator of a recession, which under one rule, is defined as six straight months of declining GDP. Gross domestic product, which increased at a meager 0.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, measures the value of all goods and services produced within the United States and is the best barometer of the nation?s economic health.

Even if the oft-forecast recession of 2008 mirrors the climate of the relatively mild 2001 recession?as many economists expect?hundreds of thousands more Americans stand to lose their jobs.

?We?re at the beginning of a protracted period of labor market contraction,? said Jared Bernstein, senior economist with the Economic Policy Institute in Washington.

Employers slashed 80,000 jobs in March, and the loss of 76,000 jobs in both January and February were deeper than originally reported, according to Labor Department data. By comparison, there were 355,000 jobs cuts during the first three months of the 2001 recession, and 332,000 in the 1990 recession.

Last month?s cuts were the most since March 2003, when the labor market was still struggling to recover from the 2001 recession. Job losses from that economic downturn did not stop until August of 2003, marking ?the longest jobless recovery on record,? Bernstein said.

More than 1.6 million jobs were lost in the March-November 2001 period, compared with about 1.3 million from July 1990 through March 1991, which defined that recession.

Compared with last year, wages grew about 3.7 percent, on average, in the first three months of 2008, preliminary data show. That pace is slightly slower than the 4-percent and 4.1-percent growth experienced in the opening three-month periods of the 2001 and 1990 recessions, respectively.



Copyright 2011 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



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