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Russian sees end of American Dream

By Philip Tubeza
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 07:01:00 03/11/2009

Filed Under: World Financial Crisis, Government, US politics, Banking, Bankruptcy

MANILA, Philippines?This autumn will see the start of the United States? ?disintegration,? according to the dean of Russia?s diplomatic academy.

Speaking Tuesday through an interpreter at the University of the Philippines in Diliman, Quezon City, Igor Panarin said that with the financial crisis worsening in the United States, the world?s lone superpower could start breaking up into six different territories by the yearend.

Panarin, a former KGB analyst who heads the Diplomacy Academy of the Russian foreign ministry, likened the current crisis in the United States to the last days of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), and said US President Barack Obama would be unable to stop his country?s economic meltdown and eventual ?disintegration.?

?I?ve studied the history of the United States and my conclusion is that it has no future ... The fall of Wall Street last year could be likened to the end of the American Dream,? Panarin said in a lecture.

?Obama will not be able to do anything. He is like [the USSR?s last leader Mikhail] Gorbachev, who had beautiful words to say but when it came to work, it was a different matter. Obama is the American version of Gorbachev,? he said.

Gorbachev tried to implement reforms to save the Soviet communist system, but failed. He eventually presided over the USSR?s relatively peaceful demise.

6 ?republics?

Panarin, who predicted as early as 1998 that the United States would eventually collapse, said its disintegration would begin this autumn and last for nine months before six separate ?republics? emerge to supplant it.

He said these new territories would include the ?California Republic? (composed of the states of California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, Utah, and Idaho), which would be absorbed or fall under the influence of China, and the ?Texas Republic? (Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida) that would become part of or fall under Mexico?s influence.

Panarin said Canada would get or influence the ?Central North American Republic? (the Midwest plus Montana, Wyoming and Colorado), ?Atlantic America? (the northeastern American seaboard plus Kentucky, Tennessee, and North and South Carolina) would end up with the European Union or the United Kingdom.

He said Alaska would revert back to Russia, and Japan and China would take over Hawaii.

Pyramid of debt

Panarin, who holds a doctorate in political science, said America?s collapse was being brought about by economic and political factors, particularly the fall of the US dollar and its burgeoning foreign debt.

?They have created in the United States a pyramid [of foreign debt] based on the dollar, and they see no other way to solve this crisis,? he said, adding:

?In the 1980s, the US almost had no foreign debt, but in 1998, this reached $2 trillion. Now, they have [a debt of] $12 trillion and so it grew six times in just a decade.

?This reminds me of the situation in my country before the USSR fell because our foreign debt increased five times.?

Panarin said the US greenback would go on a free fall this autumn and would be replaced by regional currencies for world trade to go on.

This will trigger the unraveling of America, he said.

?In my view, by November the situation would be ripe for the disintegration of the United States. There will be changes in its economic map. There will be a change in its constitution that would lead to six new [territories],? he said.

Other signs of collapse

Panarin noted that the number of US banks declaring bankruptcy had risen from just three in 2007 to 25 in 2008.

?In the first month of 2009, 12 US banks went under, and so we can see the trend among US banks,? he said.

He added that the other signs of a collapsing America was its shrinking gross domestic product, burgeoning budget deficit of more than $1 trillion, and the biggest unemployment figures ?in the last 60 years.?

Panarin also said that through their legislatures, eight US states had reiterated their sovereignty vis--vis the US federal government, seven of them just this February. He said some native American groups had also declared their ?independence? from the union.

He said sociology and political science experts should come together to prepare not just for the implosion of the United States but also for the world economic order that would come about after its demise.

?The fall of the US will create many problems around the world. There will be chaos and conflict. We should answer what we can if indeed the US will disintegrate,? Panarin said.


But while Panarin?s claims appeared thought-provoking and timely, his audience was not entirely convinced.

Sociology professor and Philippine Daily Inquirer columnist Randy David, who aired his views after Panarin?s speech, questioned the ?theoretical soundness? of the latter?s claims.

Others said Panarin?s views might just be part of Russia?s diplomatic propaganda against the United States, its traditional rival.

?Dr. Panarin is not a feng shui expert nor an astrologer but a scientist, and we expect his analysis to be based on an organized theory or clear observations about empirical events, not just in the US but also in the worldwide economy,? David said.

?While we have pile after pile of grievances against the US and many of us here in the University of the Philippines are hoping that it would finally fall, we should also learn to separate our aspirations from a correct analysis of, or a scientific perspective on, what might happen,? he said, alluding to the premier state university?s reputation in the past as a hotbed of student radicalism.

Unlike the ruble

While conceding that a seemingly invincible superpower could collapse, as shown by the USSR, David particularly questioned Panarin?s claims about the strength of the US dollar.

?The American dollar is unlike the Soviet ruble. The Soviet ruble was never a global currency. The American dollar, whether we like it or not, has become a global currency...? David said.

?China and Japan?s foreign reserves are all in dollars. So ironically, countries like them can?t do anything but give support to the country that is the root of the financial crisis,? he said.

David also questioned Panarin?s claim that the six purported ?republics? would fall under the influence of or be gobbled up by other countries.

?While I could imagine California declaring independence, why would they allow themselves to be absorbed by China? Why would Californians think that their crisis would be solved by China?? David said.

?These other countries also have their own national crises. Japan did not escape the financial crisis, and I think no one can say that the economic situation in Mexico is better than in the US,? David said.

?And it would be harder to imagine that the US eastern seaboard would be saved by the United Kingdom, when the banks in England are even worse off than those in America,? he said.

Copyright 2015 Philippine Daily Inquirer. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.




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