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EMERGING CURRENCIES
Singapore dollar, won weighed down

By Kevin Yao
Reuters
First Posted 13:19:00 01/02/2009

Filed Under: Foreign Exchange Markets, Economy and Business and Finance

SINGAPORE -- The South Korean won and Singapore dollar slid on Friday on concerns about the countries' growth outlooks as the global downturn looked set to further hit Asia's export-dependent economies.

In 2008, many Asian currencies had their worst year in a decade, hit by waves of sell-offs in regional stock and bonds as the global financial crisis spooked investors to flee to safer assets.

The won lost more than 5.0 percent on Friday to 1,330.9 per dollar, its weakness since Dec. 24, on the government's grim export forecast for 2009 and as the market expected the authorities to cut dollar-selling intervention to boost exports.

South Korea's December exports slid a worse-than-expected 17.4 percent from a year earlier and the government said 2009 exports would probably grow only one percent, marking the weakest pace in eight years.

The data fuelled market expectations of another interest rate cut when the Bank of Korea reviews monetary policy on Jan. 9.

Most Asian markets were closed on Thursday for the New Year holiday and those in China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines remained shut on Friday.

The Singapore dollar fell as far as 1.4555 per US dollar, down almost 1.5 percent from Wednesday's close, after the government cut its economic outlook for 2009 to between a decline of 2.0 percent and growth of 1.0 percent.

"The figures should help weaken the Singapore dollar," said a Singapore-based trader, who reckoned investors were buying back the US dollar on the belief that the Singapore dollar is near the strong end of its trading band managed by the central bank.

Singapore's central bank steers monetary policy by managing the currency within an undisclosed traded-weighted band against a basket of currencies, rather than adjusting interest rates.

Kit Wei Zheng, an economist at Citigroup, expects Singapore's economy to contract an annual 2.8 percent in 2009, the most severe recession in city-state's history.

In response, the government is likely to unveil an aggressive fiscal stimulus later this month while the central bank would probably let the Singapore dollar weaken by re-centring its trading band downward in April, when it reviews policy, Kit said in a note.

"Although the current recession is due to a contraction in demand, a modest weakening of the Singapore dollar's nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) could still provide some relief for exporters," Kit said.

Meanwhile, the Malaysian ringgit fell 0.6 percent to 3.4725 per dollar, taking its cue from the Singapore dollar.

"It's hard to make a call on the long-term trend at this stage but we expect dollar/ringgit to move higher in the short run," said a trader in Kuala Lumpur, who expected the ringgit to move between 3.46-3.48 for the day.

The ringgit in six-month offshore non-deliverable forwards fell as low as 3.4910 per dollar, implying a fall of nearly one percent from Friday's spot rate.



Copyright 2010 Reuters. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.



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