Economist estimates ‘Yolanda’ impact on PH economy at P604 B


Albay Gov. Joey Salceda. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines—The impact of monster typhoon “Yolanda” (Haiyan) on the Philippine economy could be as much as P604 billion,  or five percent of the country’s gross domestic product, Albay Gov. Joey Salceda, an economist who was recently elected chairman of the United Nations’ Green Climate Fund, said Tuesday.

“In dollar terms ($14 billion), this is more than three times the reconstruction cost of Pepeng and Ondoy. This will have a major punch on the fourth quarter GDP this year but it will have its full impact lag into 2014. This overlaps with the negative impact or reconstruction demand from (Typhoon) Pablo, (the battle of) Zamboanga and Bohol (earthquake) which total another P60 billion,” Salceda said in a statement texted to the media.

Salceda said he based his estimates on data cited by Bloomberg senior analyst Jonathan Adams, who used Kinetic Analysis Corp. in assessing Yolanda’s damage.

With the government allocating a measly P23 billion for the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, Salceda said, failure to replace the economic capacity lost to Yolanda would limit the country’s economic growth to 5 percent.

“Typhoon Haiyan puts more pressure behind the commitment of the GCF Board to operationalize the fund in 2014, conduct a resource mobilization exercise by September when the UN General Assembly meets in New York, and provide initial funding to capability building and preparedness activities of developing countries,” Salceda said.

“It is no mere coincidence that I was unanimously selected by developing countries to co-chair the fund with Germany a month before this climate monster clawed and sank its teeth into my homeland, right at the center which hosts most of our beautiful spots. The Green Climate Fund is the principal weapon of the world community in slaying this grievous monster,”  Salceda added, alluding to his vast experiencing in coping with natural calamities as governor of Albay.

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  • Joseph20112012

    The aftermath of the Typhoon Yolanda should be a rude-awakening for the government to consider structural economic and political reforms in order to rebuild affected cities as fast as possible. I mean that reconstructing them and protecting them from future natural calamities are way beyond the capacity of our economic and political system where local business and political oligarchs rule while those who are willing to join the reconstruction like foreigners cannot into due to our xenophobic and exclusive economic and political systems.

    Mr President, please support the clamor from local and foreign business community to repeal the 60/40 forced equity sharing (Article XII, Sections 2-3, 10-14; Article XIV, Section 4; and Article XVI, Section 11) and allow foreign investors (multinational or SMEs) not just to reconstruct affected cities but also building a strong industrial economy where most Filipinos are employed and well-off.

    Mr President, please support the clamor from provinces to shift from presidential-unitary to parliamentary-federal to give regions or provinces a freedom to raise revenues through encouraging businesses to set-up there without Manila’s interference. By decentralizing our political system, we would be able to mitigate future disasters like the Typhoon Yolanda.

    • Anqui

      WHAT A WISHFUL THINKING! This Earth…which planet did you come from, JOE?

  • Mark

    Palagay ko sa daming pumapasok na donasyon galing sa ibang bansa, mapupunan nito ang nawalang yaman ng dahil sa bagyo. Mas lalakas ang consumption dahil sa reconstruction ng mga bayang nasalanta. Hindi naman concentrated ang ekonomiya ng bansa sa Tacloban at minimal lang naman ang destruction sa iba pang nasalanta, bakit naman ang laki ng itinaya ni Salceda?

  • Tama_ako

    I still didn’t like the preparation that PNOY did… so many questions comes to my mind… he should not blame the local officials as they were also victims too, nothing was spared from the force of nature… its a lack of preparedness, the media even get there first… ITS OUR FIRST TIME AGAIN IN MANY YEARS WE ENCOUNTER 250kph SUPER TYPHOON and still the relief was a bit late??? HINDI NA NMAN PALAGI DAPAT KASALANAN NG TAO EH, IMPORTANTE NKPAGHANDA ANG LAHAT KUNG ANU MAN KAHINATNAN NG BAGYO NA TO – LALO NA KAYONG NASA PWESTO… gumagastos nga kayo sa technolohiya pero hindi nyo naman na mamaximize yung gamit nito… nireport nyo nga lakas at kung saan tatama pero hindi rin pala kayo handa agad kung anu man mangyari after dumaan si YOLANDA!

    • Mark

      Madaling sabihin yan kasi wala ka sa planning team at actual na sitwasyon. Lahat ng mga kagamitang gagamitin sana sa relief operation pagkatapos ng bagyo ay dinala na sa Tacloban. Ngunit hindi nila inaasahan ang mas matinding hagupit ni Yolanda kaya ultimo mga inihanda nila sa Tacloban na-wash out. Ngayon, lahat ng mga gamit at kailangang dalhin sa Tacloban ay galing sa labas na nahihirapang ipasok dahil lahat ng access point ay nawasak, airport, seaport at mga kalsada. Maging ang mga linya ng komunikasyon ay nawasak din. Ngayon, isipin mo kung bakit natatagalan ang relief effort ng mga ahensiya ng gobyerno considering na hindi talga natural ang bagyong dumaan? Just do your part iho, hindi puro ka reklamo.

    • El_Gran_Capitan

      It is the first time that the magnitude of destruction is like this that you cannot even utilize the airport due to the damage the typhoon had created. This is more severe than hurricane Katrina, so stop whinning and do your part

  • Isda

    just askin: where was the mayor of tacloban a couple of days after the storm? i only saw him first time on the news today.

  • renedr

    History has shown that economic growth is not hampered by major destruction or calamities. For example, look at the economic growth in Germany and Japan after world war 2, and in Thailand and Indonesia after the tsunami.

    Salceda is an economist, so he should know this. What he is doing is trying to paint a pessimistic picture for whatever self serving reasons he has. Notice how the article is written as a self-praising press release. “It is no mere coincidence that I….”

    The economic trajectory of the Philippines will not solely be determined by Yolanda. Other more important factors are:

    1. Extending true democratic institutions.
    2. Rooting out corruption.
    3. Using the available resources to spur growth (supply side economics using properly tools like the DAP)
    4. Managing a balanced budget while supporting No 3. (Avoid the pitfall of entitlement and overspending that almost ruined countries like Greece. This can easily destroy any quick economic gains. Be like the Chinese and Japanese who save a lot of money!)
    5. Spur investment in education and technology to benefit from the multiplier effects of technology

    All of the above policies were applied to Germany and Japan with unquestioned positive effect. Japan suffered firebombing in 67 cities, 2 nuclear bombs and unimaginable loss of life and property in World War II – devastation that makes Yolanda look like a minor event. Yet Japan rose to become the largest economy in Asia.

    • Anqui

      Your comparison is beyond imagination!! The two countries were economically powerful when they go to war, and their rapid recovery after being destroyed was easy because the structure of governance was intact. The Philippines by contrast is a nation with thieves and corrupt government officials that choke us from recovery.

      • honorable_guest

        Marshall Plan

      • batangpaslit

        how I wish the old homeland were rehabilitated too in the scale of Marshall Plan after the global conflagration.
        wala eh
        bagkus nag “independent” pa daw, eh, hindi naman handa after the destruction of the four year war
        my heart bleeds for my birthland…

      • batangpaslit

        how true, how sad; but, I agree with your point.

      • renedr

        Japan was bombed into the Stone Age, figuratively. So it’s pre-war economy was irrelevant. What mattered was that it had the right attitude and approach. The government was not intact. The Japanese government was completely replaced with a new constitution and new democratic government. What was important was the attitude and the institutions I mentioned earlier.

        In the sixties and seventies few Filipinos will dispute that we were at par with or better off than Korea. Korea did not have the pre-war economy of Japan or Germany. We sent troops to help Korea during their war and we even sent so many engineers to help rebuild Korea. Philippine construction companies were the best in Asia back then. Look at where Korea is today.

        Many of the politicians including Salceda and GMA are the successors of the dictator that destroyed our country’s institutions in the ’70s. Now that we are rebuilding the right institutions there is no reason why we can’t easily rise from the destruction of Yolanda.

        Be a bit more optimistic bro….

      • Anqui

        Please read over my posting! I did not say “the government was intact” I said the “Governance was intact” which I meant…the people had the desire to recover to where they were, by electing right leaders who were dedicated to lead for their countries to quickly become economic powers again.

    • batangpaslit

      Bro, before World War I and World War II – Germany and Japan were already military and economic powers
      After the second global conflagration, Euope, particularly Germany was rehabilitated by U.S.A., via the Marshall Plan.
      Likewise, Japan, was rehabilitated by U.S.A., under the oversight of General Douglas MacArthur.
      The Philippines, however, was abandoned and neglected. Yes, there were rehabilitations plans too. Japan “paid off” the Philippines by dismantling their obsolete Arsenal Munitions Plant – a WWI vintage from Germany – and installed in Limay, Bataan.
      The Filipino WWII Veterans that fought alongside with U.S. troops against the Axis Forces were not even paid by their pension money.
      I think, there is no point of comparison between the Philippines and Germany and Japan.
      Nang bumagsak ang mga cell sites towers at ang mga power lines ay naputol, may nagawa ba? The head of the government departments that commands the Armed Forces and the Philippine Nat’l Police were even rendered incommunicado.
      My preference is to develop and modernize the agriculture industry. Rather than be net exporter of staple food, why not work out to meet the local demand and export the surplus?
      My folks in the island province which was devastated too since it is in the path of the eye of the storm, survived without aid. The felled coconut trees and the plantations we had in our modest farm supplied them food. Yes,
      houses and other infrastructures were blown up, but, they are alive feeling cold, but not hungry.

      • renedr

        When you say “modernize the agriculture industry” that is precisely what I mean when I say use education to harness the multiplier effects of technology. Modernize = Technology.

        We are stuck with coconut tree plantations with low utilization and yield while countries like Malaysia have extensively used technology to build a huge palm oil industry.

        We have to realize that we cannot rely on the work of our fathers and grandfathers. Time to stop relying on the coconuts they planted 30 to 50 years ago. Now is a good time to think of what we need to do to break out of our economic rut.

    • carlcid

      You have a point, but please, huwag naman yung DAP. Pwede naman sa ibang paraan.

      • renedr

        The DAP or Development Acceleration Program is precisely the tool that must be used to spur our development.

        But Aquino should not give any of the DAP to the lawmakers as PORK. We all know that PORK almost always ends up in the pocket of the Senators and Congressmen or is used to ensure their re-election.

        When the president uses the DAP, it is not PORK because we elected the president to be the CEO of the country and spend the country’s money to run the country properly and bolster our country’s development. The president cannot be re-elected and if he steals the funds, we can always throw him in jail like GMA after his immunity from suit lapses.

        At the end of the day, if we are better off in 2016, then Aquino has done his job. If not, then we can throw the book at him if we think he stole from us. That is a risk of applying for the job of president.

  • crisostomo_ibarra_the3rd

    PDI, does it make sense to you to put this news report in the front page???? Dont you have any idea that you should be helping out the people? Why dont you communicate to the people what the victims need and help report to the people what your government is doing. Report to the people the ways they can help in terms of volunteering and donating. Continuously remind people what they can donate.

    • reywadmin

      they have to banner this guy’s face probably to remind people to go to Dra Belo and have some facial from time to time…

  • redsnow

    Philippines has many disaster

    The most worst disaster in the Philippines is the uneducated people who vote actors, corrupt , dynasty politician during election . The victims is the whole country.

    • batangsulpok

      100% AGREE.

    • batangpaslit

      Red, do you think our Kababayan will learn lessons out of these series of cataclysmic catastrophe?

      • redsnow

        Maybe ,, nobody knows … maybe this is the eye opener for our people that our country is prone of catastrophe so we will make wise enough not to vote corrupt people ,,, voting corrupt and no how person in making laws is the big human catastrophe and human error that victimize to the whole people with a long term effect .. Not like typhoon, typhoon takes 2 or 5 years to hail .

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