Q4 economic growth may hit 7%–Pernia

Neda chief Ernesto Pernia. INQUIRER file photo / JOAN BONDOC

The country’s chief economist sees the economy growing by as high as 7 percent in the fourth quarter as the Christmas season bolsters consumer spending.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia told reporters last week that gross domestic product (GDP) growth in October to December could hit between 6.5 percent and 7 percent.

Pernia, who heads state planning agency National Economic and Development Authority (Neda), is bullish about the easing inflation auguring well to private consumption and government spending on public goods and services catching up to reverse underspending at the start of the year.

But Pernia acknowledged lingering downside risks coming from the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China—both global economic giants.

“I think the trade war is really the biggest risk not only to the Philippines but also to the global economy,” Pernia said.

On the domestic front, Pernia said the onslaught of typhoons might impact on economic growth moving forward.

The better-than-expected third quarter GDP growth of 6.2 percent brought the end-September average to 5.8 percent.

The economy needs to grow by 6.7 percent in the fourth quarter to achieve at least the lower end of the government’s full-year target of 6-7 percent.

According to Pernia, a faster fourth-quarter growth is “very achievable.”