Global rice output still down due to El Niño

THE PRICES of rice in the global market are still rising as lingering El Niño-related droughts continued to affect negatively the outlook for rice production in 2016, according to a United Nations-supervised monitoring system.

Based on the latest monthly market report of the Agricultural Market Information System (Amis), the rice production forecast for 2016 was lowered by one million tons to 494 million tons.

Still, the latest forecast is one percent higher than the previous year’s estimated output of 490 million tons.

“(P)rospects for Bangladesh, Brazil and China deteriorate. Exporting countries to account for much of the one-percent upturn in global output,” the Amis said.

On the other hand, the forecast trade volume was raised by 100,000 tons to 44.1 million tons. The new figure is still short of the estimated 44.7 million tons traded the previous year.

“(Trade is) still seen falling by 2 percent year-on-year, on weaker import demand in Asia,” the Amis said.

The monitoring body noted overall conditions for the new season are favorable in Southeast Asia.

In the Philippines, rice growers have begun planting the wet-season crop, which usually accounts for about three-fifths of yearly output.

“Planting and field preparations are ongoing in Thailand, the Philippines and the US under favorable conditions,” the Amis said. “End of season conditions for (major exporter) Thailand’s dry season crop were poor due to the impacts of El Niño witnessed throughout the season.”

Last week, the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) said global food prices rose for the fourth straight month in May, this time including rice prices, but commodity markets are expected to be stable in the year ahead.

In a monthly update of its Food Price Index, the FAO said solid production prospects and abundant stocks pointed to “broadly stable” prices and supplies. In May, the FAO’s Food Price Index averaged 155.8 points, rising by 2.1 percent from the 152.5 points in April.