Citi sees continued growth for PH exports

Philippine export receipts were likely to continue a double-digit growth pace through the first half of this year on higher demand for nontechnology products, American banking giant Citigroup said.

For the month of November, Citi said the country’s exports likely grew by 20.5 percent year on year, faster than the 11.5 percent expected by the market, based on a research note written by Citi economist for the Philippines Jun Trinidad. The government is set to report the November export receipts data on Friday.

Trinidad said exports of manufactured goods out of the Philippines in November had probably risen by close to 30 percent year on year, citing robust external demand for non-tech manufactures, which he said would likely result in growth exceeding 50 percent year on year.

“Chemicals, processed food and beverages, garments and accessories, ignition wiring sets and woodcrafts and furniture would lead the non-tech manufactured exports,” Trinidad said.

“We continue to expect a lift from the US and Japan markets. On the tech side, electronics probably grew 10.2 percent year on year driven mainly by the nonsemiconductor group led by electronics and data-processing equipment,” he said.

But Citi is continuing to expect weak semiconductor exports, where receipts were expected to decline by 9 percent year on year despite upbeat signals from the US semiconductor book-to-bill ratio during the month.

Meanwhile, Trinidad said farm-based and other unprocessed goods had probably fallen by more than 40 percent year on year in November due to supply constraints. For instance, he said coconut exports were likely affected by typhoon Yolanda and lackluster demand.

On the whole, Citi estimated that seasonally adjusted exports had probably risen by 3.4 percent month on month for the third straight monthly gain in November.

Based on the latest government data, gains in manufactured goods, minerals and forest products fueled a 14-percent growth in export receipts for October 2013 from 6.1 percent in the same period in 2012. This brought cumulative year-on-year growth to positive territory for the first time in 2013.

From January to October last year, exports increased by 1.3 percent year on year to $45.1 billion.