MANILA, Philippines — Philippine exporters expect overseas sales to reach a record high this year, potentially surpassing the $100-billion mark, barring any policy shifts in Washington that could disrupt the country’s prized shipments of electronics and agricultural goods.
Philippine Exporters Confederation Inc. (Philexport) estimates total exports to reach $108 billion in 2026. This would mark an all-time high and a 27-percent increase from last year’s $84.48 billion.
READ: https://business.inquirer.net/601971/us-slaps-philippine-exports-with-new-12-5-tariff
From January to September, exports had already reached $73.95 billion according to Philippine Statistics Authority data.
But Philexport president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said the prospect of a banner year largely hinges on US trade policies remaining unchanged, especially amid growing uncertainty in the Philippines’ largest export market.
Specifically, he said sustained export growth would depend on electronics and agricultural products—among the country’s key shipments to Washington—retaining their tariff exemptions.
“Exports will continue to increase, just don’t change the existing rules,” Ortiz-Luis said.
Currently, Philippine shipments to the United States face a 12.5-percent tariff, up from 10 percent following Washington’s sweeping investigation into imports allegedly produced using forced labor.
However, the tariff applies to only 34.28 percent of Philippine exports to the United States, with exemptions covering semiconductors, other electronics and certain agricultural products, among others.
But recently, concerns over another shift in US trade policy have emerged following the Republican Party’s defeat to the Democrats in the midterm elections.
In a research note, Oxford Economics warned that one downside risk from the election results was the possibility that the Trump administration “goes harder on tariff, foreign and immigration policies.”
Ortiz-Luis nonetheless expressed optimism that Washington would refrain from further tightening its trade restrictions.
“I hope he (Trump) will tame a little because (the Republicans) lost,” the Philexport president said.
Ortiz-Luis added that while the weak peso raises costs for exporters reliant on imported raw materials, the exchange rate could also help offset those expenses when their products are sold overseas.
Citing semiconductor manufacturers, he said around 70 percent of the industry’s production inputs are imported. Despite this reliance, electronics remain the country’s top export, thanks to strong demand driven by artificial intelligence.
In September, semiconductor exports, the country’s largest export category, surged 86.1 percent to $5.7 billion.
Philippine exports to the United States, a major hub for AI-related investment, jumped 135.3 percent to $2.6 billion during the month.