Philippines to revisit macro view on Trump 2.0, weak peso

Amenah Pangandaman Photo by Ryan Leagogo/ INQUIRER.net

The Marcos administration might revise some of its macroeconomic assumptions to account for the impact of a second Trump administration on the economy and the current weakness of the peso, Budget Secretary Amenah Pangandaman said.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Pangandaman said the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) would revisit the macroeconomic targets and assumptions that policymakers use as a guide to fiscal planning. The review will happen once the inter-agency body convenes again in the first week of December.

READ: Winners, losers emerge as peso weakens

Specifically, the budget chief, who is also the chair of the DBCC, said the committee might have to revise its current peso-dollar assumption of 56 to 58.

This, as a volatile peso threatens to pierce through the record-low 59:$1 level that had been revisited last week amid a rallying dollar that draws its strength from investor unease following Donald Trump’s election victory in the US.

But overall, Pangandaman said any possible tweaks to the DBCC’s targets and predictions would be “minimal”.

“I’m not sure if they can already take into consideration the new administration of President Trump. I think it’s also nice to look at it,” she said. “The technical working group is looking into it.”

2024 goal still intact

The Philippine economy grew at an annualized 5.2 percent in the three months through September, the weakest growth in five quarters. That clip was slower than the 6.4-percent expansion in the second quarter, and was also below market expectations.

Average gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.8 percent in the first nine months. This means the economy would have to grow by at least 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter to meet the 6 to 7 percent target of the Marcos administration for 2024.

Despite the impact of a Trump presidency on the global economy, Pangandaman said the Philippines could still hit its growth target for this year on the back of higher government spending.

She added that the Marcos administration would hold more roadshows abroad to promote the Philippines as an attractive investment destination in the middle of global uncertainties.

”As of now, we’re trying to still keep up the budget,” she said. “The agencies, based on the numbers, are utilizing their budget now.”