Fed officials raise inflation concerns, but still see rate cuts in 2024

WASHINGTON — US Federal Reserve officials raised concerns at their March interest rate meeting about the recent “broad-based” rise in inflation, but still said they expected cuts to start this year, according to minutes of the meeting published Wednesday.

The Fed held its benchmark lending rate at a 23-year high after its March meeting, as policymakers continue their attempts to bring inflation back down firmly to the US central bank’s long-term target of two percent.

Price increases have slowed significantly from their peak in 2022, but have crept higher in recent months, keeping the markets guessing about when the Fed could start cutting rates, even as other indicators of US economic strength have remained resilient.

READ: When will the US Fed cut rates? Maybe later or not at all

“Some participants noted that the recent increases in inflation had been relatively broad-based and therefore should not be discounted as merely statistical aberrations,” the Fed said in a statement.

“However, a few participants noted that residual seasonality could have affected the inflation readings at the start of the year,” it added.

May 1 Fed meeting

At its most recent interest rate meeting in March, Fed policymakers penciled in three cuts for this year, suggesting they expected inflation to continue along its bumpy path back to 2 percent.

“Almost all participants judged that it would be appropriate to move policy to a less restrictive stance at some point this year if the economy evolved broadly as they expected,” the Fed said in its minutes of the meeting.

READ: US consumer inflation accelerated in March, dampening rate cut hopes

But since the March meeting, consumer inflation has continued to accelerate, reducing the chances of an early interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in a tense election year.

Policymakers will next gather to set interest rates later this month, with the decision announced on May 1.

Futures traders overwhelmingly expect the Fed to remain on pause in May, according to data from CME Group.