Shifting patterns: Ruminating the year that was
The erosion of the notion of place comes with the possibility to be anywhere and be everywhere at the same time. (INQUIRER FILE PHOTO)
(Conclusion)
Last week, we noted a few significant events that are both a cause for optimism as well as caution. Here are other events to note as well.
Warmer world
In 2023, the world saw its hottest days ever recorded. The Philippines was not spared, with the municipality of Casiguran in Aurora province reaching a heat index of 60 degrees Celsius in August. This year, the prolonged impact of El Niño is seen to make our summer even hotter with some experts predicting droughts that can have adverse impacts on agriculture, water supply and cost of goods.
In 2023, the world saw its hottest days ever recorded.
Last year’s international climate conference, COP 28, concluded with some promising agreements, including a treaty on the phase out of the expansion of fossil fuel exploitation. A binding commitment among coal, oil and gas producing countries to curb production will effectively shift global demand away from fossil fuel by addressing the supply side of the equation. The key is to ensure that the treaty is implemented soon enough.
Economic uncertainty, conflict anxiety
Geopolitical conflict plagued many regions in 2023—wars in Ukraine and Gaza as well as tensions in West Philippine Sea. The fear of escalation or protracted tensions further fuels the prevailing uncertainty in the global economy which is besieged by rising interest rates and inflation. On top of these would be the 2024 US presidential elections along with the complex web of issues and global implications attached to it.
Prolonged impact of El Niño is seen to make our summer even hotter.
Shifting demographics
The global population will reach 8 billion this year. It was only 13 years ago when we breached 7 billion. The increase will further strain the already scarce resources and their distribution, particularly since future population growth will be concentrated in developing countries.
The Philippines, now with a population of around 116 million, is estimated to grow to 128 million by the end of the decade, becoming the 11th most populous country in the world—still significant despite the the country’s declining population growth rate in the past decades.
The increase of population will further strain the already scarce resources.
The total fertility rate of Filipino women declined 1.9 children per woman in 2022, below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman. This trend is particularly significant since a decline in fertility rate coupled with an increase in the proportion of working age population can boost economic growth—reaping what is referred to by economists as demographic dividend.
That is the theory, of course. It remains to be seen if the Philippines can seize the narrowing window of opportunity by implementing policies to leverage our demographic transition towards economic productivity, as some of our Asean neighbors did a few decades ago.
Property firms must take bold steps and view uncertainties as opportunities to stand out. GHARPEDIA.COM
A related factor is urbanization. Mega Manila is home to about 38 percent of the country’s population. As suburban growth spreads to adjoining regions forming the conurbation referred to as the Greater Capital Region, issues on infrastructure capacity, congestion, and land conversion could be counterproductive to economic growth.
What then?
If there is a single theme capturing the signals of 2023, it could very well be that “things are about to change”.
The shifting patterns in multiple facets of society will inevitably persist into the current year. Making sense of these complex and shifting patterns is a daunting challenge and the prudent business strategy would be the age-old cliche of embracing uncertainty. The implications of such a complex environment could be significant as this could result in short-term, opportunistic thinking, and risk aversion that avoid bold, innovative strategies precisely at the time when such are needed for transformative development.
The shifting patterns in multiple facets of society will inevitably persist into the current year.
History, however, has shown that some firms do take bold steps and view uncertainties as opportunities to stand out. The property sector has had its share of companies who started their now well-known brands during crisis when most established players opted to sit it out.
In these changing times, one thing is certain: the status quo and old paradigms won’t cut it anymore.
