PH, India seen weathering global crisis fastest

In case the global economy again experiences a downturn, the Philippines and India were tagged by UK-based Oxford Economics as two countries most likely to bounce back the fastest.

“Most EMs (emerging markets) have reasonable prospects to secure a soft landing, even if external conditions deteriorate. Our soft-landing scorecard suggests India and the Philippines are the most secure, and Argentina and South Africa the least,” Oxford Economics senior economist Tamara Basic Vasiljev said in a March 21 report titled “Despite vulnerabilities, EM soft landings are likely.”

Soft landing is defined by Investopedia as “a cyclical downturn which avoids recession.”

“It typically describes attempts by central banks to raise interest rates just enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation, without causing a significant increase in unemployment, or a hard landing,” Investopedia said.

In Oxford Economics’ EM soft-landing scorecard gauging emerging markets’ potentials to weather any global economic slowdown, India posted the highest score of 3.45 out of five, followed by the Philippines with 3.44.

In the scorecard, a perfect score of five reflected the least risks, while the lowest score of one point to potentially hard landings.

The Philippines scored four in economic resilience, past policy over-tightening, and internal risk.

It gained a score of three in exchange rate sensitivities and trade openness.

Oxford Economics said the Philippines, India, Hungary and Poland had the most robust positions in terms of economic resilience.

However, Oxford Economics said a global economic slowdown might put pressure on the Philippines’ debt position, as in the past.