Economic team sees PH weathering Trump shock

The head of President Duterte’s economic team said the government was on a wait-and-see mode with regard to the potential impact on the domestic economy of a Donald Trump presidency in the United States starting next year, although the Philippines was seen to remain resilient to external shocks.

Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III told reporters the economic team would have to determine whether Trump would have economic policies similar to his Republican predecessors.

“If we’re looking at what he said during the campaign and now, the question is, is he going to stick to the normal or the usual Republican tact? It seems [Trump would] not. He is for cutting taxes, which is the usual Republican tact, but he wants to spend on infrastructure, which is not the usual Republican tact,”  Dominguez said.

He said Trump was very hard to read right now. “So we really can’t say until we see what his team is going to put in his program… He’s not a candidate that came from the mainstream of Republicans.”

During his campaign, Trump promised to keep jobs at home, a policy that analysts said was bad news for the Philippines. But Dominguez said the Philippines would likely be shielded from possibly lower exports to the United States by robust domestic demand.

As for the potential impact of Trump’s protectionist policy on the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, currently a major dollar earner for the country, Dominguez noted it was even the Republicans who had pushed for outsourcing.

“They have to see what makes sense. Is it more efficient for Americans to do [outsourcing] or not? I think the cost differential in doing work in the US and BPOs here is so big,” he said.

Dominguez said Mr. Duterte’s pivot to Asia, especially in China, would help compensate for possible negative economic impacts of Trump’s win. “We have declared that we’re reorienting our economy toward Asia and we’re going to have less reliance in the West. —BEN O. DE VERA