Still on the market and the elections
Nothing seemed to have strongly affected the market than the recently held national elections. It divided friends and kin, especially in the choice for President. But that thing may now have come to pass. The votes have been cast and in the next few days, we may have named a winner.
If we go by how the market had reacted with the presidential candidates leading in the survey at the time, none seemed to have excited the market to rally. This was whether it was Vice President Jejomar Binay, Sen. Grace Poe or Mayor Rodrigo Duterte. Comparatively, however, the market seemed to be reacting better at the times when Binay and Poe were leading in the race early this year. The market was going strong and ascending. Foreign investors traded more actively as buyers than sellers in the market then. But when Duterte started to take the lead three weeks ago, the market appeared to decline out of some fear. And, when his ascent in the race became faster, the market weakened all the more.
This cautious reaction of the market with Duterte’s advance represented a feeling of wariness despite serving to be a reflection of the general public’s frustration with the “ruling political establishment.” His unorthodox style of leadership and character may have ignited support to catapult him as frontrunner, but the market found it somehow still daunting.
In particular, his perceived inclination to the left and expressed preference to the institution of another form of government like federalism created some apprehensions among market players. They could sow trouble or resistance from some interest groups that may throw away opportunities or destroy previous gains.
Poe is a study in contrast. She lacks track record of performance except her relatively short stint as a low-level functionary and as senator. While she is articulate and shows an analytical mind, she has no track record to prove her decision-making ability and quality of judgments on critical issues. But as supporters claim, she has the heart for the common man and a benign President that could not stir trouble to the interests of the many elite.
Binay was an ideal candidate for business with his extensive relationship with both businessmen and local political groups. His victory in the vice presidential race before was a proof of this strength. His surprise win in the vice presidential race that defied survey results was a proof this enviable advantage of Binay. His slide in the present presidential race is a manifestation that he had lost these enviable support from business and grassroots political groups. This is the result of the more than one year of investigation over charges of corruption and wrongdoing during his term as mayor of Makati City. This has placed his moral ascendancy to lead the country in question.
Job at hand
For the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), the job awaiting the new President is summed up by the acronym “GIANT STEPS.” It’s a program that—in the end—will bolster the creation of more jobs. This will entail an aggressive framework of economic and governance reform policies.
First in the acronym “G,” which stands for “good governance.” The PCCI feels the new President must put serious effort in reducing bureaucracy. Good governance lead to competitiveness. “I” is about infrastructure. Infrastructure is the precursor of further economic growth. “A” stands for boosting agriculture, which account for presently employing a third of the labor force. “N” for building up the industrial sector, as in attracting more foreign direct investments to build more factories. “T” is for tourism. A good program on tourism will unlock the potentials of the country’s great outdoors that will further boost employment and economic growth. And “STEPS” refers to programs for the advancement of science, technology, education, people and skills.
Bottom line spin
All of the five candidates for President appear to have the minimum aptitude to be able to formulate the necessary programs to achieve “GIANT STEPS.” They differ only in their displayed ability of making them happen. Based on the most recent poll results, Duterte’s brand of management could be the right choice to handle the job. Aside from his controversial ways, he is considered by sympathizers as a truly good man whose heart is indeed for the people’s interests.
Duterte “hates persons who discriminate, take advantage and assault vulnerable sectors of society,” supporters claim. They added that Duterte’s “campaign mantra to eradicate illegal drugs and criminality within six months of his presidency”—and foster peace and order—indeed echoed the very present aspiration of the general public that he continued to lord over in the pre-election surveys. Lastly, he offered decisive leadership, proven by his long term as mayor of Davao City.
All these observations in his character and ability seem to explain his popularity and possible election to the presidency. More than that, Duterte believed that it was his destiny to win the presidency. But Monday’s voting will finally settle these claims—whether he is the man favored by voters or destined for the presidency.
In last Fridays trading results, however, his lead has driven the market once more to lower grounds, closing at 6,991.87, down 7.88 points or 0.11 percent. The bourse’s All-Shares index, however, showed a positive, albeit small, reaction to Duterte’s lead. It closed at 4,163.06, up 0.94 points or 0.02 percent.
This deviation between the PSEi and the All-Shares index could mean that Duterte could be some worry to the “establishment” but a “welcome development” to the general public that will be an acceptable President, after all.
(The writer is a licensed stockbroker of Eagle Equities Inc. You may reach the Market Rider at [email protected] , [email protected] or at www.kapitaltek.com)
