Unemployment at lowest level in 4.5 years

Joblessness in the country fell to its lowest level in four and a half years with the number of Filipinos without jobs down by 3.4 million between last December and March this year, the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey showed.

According to the March 20 to 23 survey, joblessness was at 19.1 percent (9 million adults) in the first quarter, declining by 7.9 percentage points from 27 percent (12.4 million adults) in the previous quarter and 6.6 percentage points from 25.7 percent (11.5 million adults) in the same period last year.

“This could suggest that the economy’s relatively sustained GDP (gross domestic product) growth is beginning to benefit the un- and/or under-employed members of the workforce,” said Ernesto Pernia, professor at the University of the Philippines-School of Economics, in an e-mail interview.

The economy, as measured by the GDP, expanded by 6.1 percent last year, lower than the 7.2-percent growth recorded in 2013 and below the 6.5 to 7.5 percent government target.

However, the country’s growth rate of 6.3 percent in 2010 to 2014 was the highest five-year average in the past 40 years, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan noted in a forum earlier this year.

“It (drop in joblessness) could also imply that those un- or under-employed may have gotten frustrated and just stopped looking for work,” Pernia added.

Since May 2005, this was only the fourth time that joblessness fell below 20 percent. The other instances were 19.9 percent in March 2006, 17.5 percent in December 2007 and 18.9 percent in September 2010. Joblessness peaked in March 2012 at 34.4 percent and its record low was 5.4 percent in February 1998.

The better joblessness rating was accompanied by increased optimism over the availability of jobs in the country.

Of the 1,200 respondents in the survey, 38 percent said more jobs would be available in the next 12 months, 18 percent said there would be fewer jobs and 31 percent said there would be no change, resulting in a net optimism score (percent of more jobs minus percent of fewer jobs) of “high” +20, highest since +36 in November 2010 and up from a “fair” +16 last December.

SWS considers a net optimism score of +30 and above “very high”; +20 to +29 “high”; +10 to +19 “fair”; +1 to +9 “mediocre”; -9 to zero “low”; and -10 and down “very low”.

The survey, first published in BusinessWorld, had a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3 percentage points for national percentages.

By sex, joblessness slid 14.1 percentage points among women, from 41.7 percent last December to 27.6 percent in March and dropped from 15.6 percent to 12.2 percent among men.

Across age groups, joblessness among Filipinos aged 45 and over was down from 19 percent in December to 8 percent, lowest since March 2005.

It was also down among those aged 35 to 44, from 22 percent to 16 percent and among aged 25 to 34, from 32 percent to 28 percent.

Among those from 18 to 24 years old, however, joblessness increased from 48 percent to 50 percent.

The nationwide joblessness rate included those who were retrenched (8 percent from 9 percent), those who resigned (7 percent from 14 percent) and first-time job seekers (4 percent from 3 percent).

The definition of SWS joblessness covers respondents aged 18 and over who are without jobs at present and are looking for work. This excludes those not looking for a job such as housewives, students and retired or disabled persons. Ana Roa, Inquirer Research