MANILA, Philippines — Philippine imports plunged 31.5 percent year-on-year to $3.4 billion in November, the government said Tuesday amid an electronics demand meltdown that has led to thousands of job losses.
November imports of electronics parts, which are assembled at local factories into finished products for shipment abroad, fell 41.9 percent from a year ago, having already suffered a 30-percent annual drop in October.
“That was a little more steep than expected,” said David Cohen of Action Economics in Singapore, who predicted that Philippine imports would settle at a little less than 18 percent.
“We are likely to see a continued trade deficit in 2009, offset by the remittances,” Cohen said. “That’s been leaving a reasonably comfortable current account position. But there is a little nervousness as to how much remittances will fall given the whole global economy is suffering a downturn.”
Last week, the government said more than 15,000 jobs had been lost over the past two months, mainly in the electronics and garments sectors as factories tightened their belts.
Electronics products account for nearly 70 percent of the country’s exports.
The National Statistics Office said manufacturing output in November dropped 6.6 from a year earlier as measured in inflation-adjusted production volume terms.
Electrical machinery output was down 17.7 percent and textiles production fell 22.4 percent.
“Since many of the imports are raw materials for exports, the figure indicates weakness in the manufacturing side and perhaps, to a certain extent, personal consumption expenditure,” said Jose Vistan of AB Capital Securities.
Vishnu Varathan of Forecast PTE Singapore echoed this sentiment, noting that “manufacturers and exporters alike are cutting back on production in response to the sharp drop-off in consumer demand from all over.”
The November import figure released by the statistics office also revealed a sharp 23.9-percent decline from October.
The government earlier reported that November 2008 exports fell 11.4 percent from a year earlier to $3.51 billion.
Total imports in the January-November period were up 5.6 percent at $53.35 billion.
The trade deficit for the 11 months rose to $6.99 billion from $4.53 billion in the same period in 2007.
The Philippine central bank expects imports to be up 11 percent in 2008, and exports to grow by only 3 percent, leading to a record trade deficit of about $13 billion. With reports from Agence France-Presse and Reuters