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Philippine economy said to have expanded by 5.5% in Q3

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The Philippine economy is estimated to have expanded by 5.5 percent in the third quarter due to greater government spending, rise in household consumption, and increase in investments to the services sector, according to Moody’s Analytics.

In a report released Tuesday, Moody’s Analytics said the domestic economy’s strong performance enabled the country to endure the financial problems now upsetting the rest of the world.

“Despite a weak global environment, the Philippine economy likely grew by 5.5 percent year on year in the third quarter. Foreign investment and government spending are offsetting weakness in foreign demand,” wrote economist Katrina Ell of Moody’s Analytics.

Given the 5.5-percent estimated growth for the third quarter, the Philippines could end 2012 with a 5.9 percent rise in GDP [gross domestic product].

In the first semester, growth averaged at 6.1 percent.

The government’s full-year growth target has been set between 5 and 6 percent.

But Moody’s latest growth estimate marks a slowdown from the actual figures of the previous quarters—6.3 percent for the first, and 5.9 percent for the second.

“The often volatile agriculture sector took a hit in the third quarter as bad weather caused significant damage to crops,” Ell said.

Still, she added, bad weather and sluggish export performance were not sufficient to cause a substantial slowdown, due to growth in remittances that fuel household consumption.


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Tags: economy , forecasts , Philippines

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_FAZCFFMOI2ZQP6MHHJGY545KYE Diosdado

    This article should have been dropped by now.  This confuses the readers.  The true GDP growth in q3 was 7.1% as announced.  Can you hear me inquirer?

  • upupperclassman

    How can the economists from Moody Analytics be so off in estimating the 3rd quarter growth to be at 5.5% against 7.1% as announced by Philippine government officials? The difference of 1.6% means somebody has not learned his economics degree in a deserving manner. Who do you think should go back to school?

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/UZF4OTGY4BREFE42RXP7FZJKFY Ding

      I think you should go back to school to learn how to solve problems, if they really are…or how not to worry yourself on anything that’s not a problem at all…if you still consider this resort as a problem, you cannot go anywhere where you cannot find yourself problematic.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/7ORQXIHIRBWWEPZ4IKVR7LNHBI Yum Yum

    sablay ang Moody’s, 7.1 ang 3rdQ GDP increase… buti na lang

  • joboni96

    salamat sa mga overseas pilipinos

    mas mataas pa sana if not for

    1. intsik switiks exporting money to tsina
    from businesses coming from pilipinos

    2. hot money sucking pilipino wealth to foreign countries

  • kilabot

    7.1% daw sabi ni noykapon. inflated na naman as usual.

    • http://twitter.com/xxxriainxxx xxxriainxxx

      NCSB issued that. Not Noynoy.

      • Diablo_III

        nagmukhang tanga tuloy si Kilabot. hahahaha. 

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/UZF4OTGY4BREFE42RXP7FZJKFY Ding

      Yang ulo mo akala mo inflated dahil parang lobong hangin lang ang laman,

  • Your_King

    You’d like to believe this is all good and well but the Aquino administration themselves helped discredit surveys and reports from data services. There are a lot of data which points at 12 million unemployed in the Philippines, and poverty line remaining stagnant, plus malnourished children on a rise, and smuggling at its highest ever. Not to mention high gas prices, high tuition, high meralco rates, high public transpo fees etc..etc…etc…its hard to believe what is what with the Philippines government under the Aquino admin.

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/UZF4OTGY4BREFE42RXP7FZJKFY Ding

      So, do not believe if you find it hard…do not give any problem to yourself that you yourself cannot solve…that;s your orwn creation, bear with it, Your Majesty, King Koy.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/ZMGHSM27H4Y3KLQ4SBAB4XZFV4 Peter

    GOD bless the Philippines!!!!!!

  • Albert Einstien

    Philippine economy can’t do without OFW remittances – Neda

    OFW remittance BOOST peso to four year high….
    hot money or foreign portfolio investments plunged to $40 million in October from $402 million posted in September.
    Boosted by remittances from overseas
    Remittances reached $17.3 billion as of end-September, up 5.7 percent year-on-year, according to the Central Bank. In September alone, remittances totaled $2 billion…

    we can change the situation in the future by tapping our mineral & natural resources we have VAST reserves of it…but first we NEED to protect the territory & resources ….by having a huge army & population..& having  VISIONARY patriotic filipino blood leaders…..if NOT we are VULNERABLE to INVASION not only by foreign governments but by ECONOMIC VULTURES …multi-national corporations &corrupt KKKs…
    AS OF today huge POPULATION is the backbone of our ECONOMY not the government…

    “The inflow of remittances is about 30% the earnings of our exports sector, in nominal terms. In fact, it is even higher than the foreign direct investments that we are getting. Because of remittances, our country’s international reserves have been at comfortable levels, and this implies less vulnerability of the country to external shocks, lesser reliance on foreign savings, and availability of more currency that will help our country service its debts and pay its imports,”neda

    the remittances are a significant source of human capital development.“At the household level, remittances are used to finance human capital investments. A portion goes to the education of family members. Returning Filipinos from abroad also bring into our country a new breed of entrepreneurs. They are a source of technology transfers as well,” the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has financial literacy programs for OFWs and their families, so that their money is placed in the right investments. ( neda )

    OFWs are contributing $20 BILLION in our fc reserves in 2012 …that is why we have $82 billion fc reserves ….not because of FDI’s ( its falling…hot money or foreign portfolio investments plunged to $40 million in October from $402 million posted in September. ) or government initiative…( spending )…
    BPO SECTOR: The IT-BPO industry is targeting $12 billion in revenue this year, higher than the $11 billion generated in 2011.

    The contact center component accounted for 65 percent of total business in 2011 with 416,000 employees providing $7.4 billion in services to the world.
    If you will see our people or huge population is the one SAVING our COUNTRY from economic collapse….due to govt noynoying & incompetence….
    Without huge population we are DOOMED now & in the Future….!

    GUSTO pa agawan ng CREDIT ang mga nagpapakahirap na OFWs at BPO’s…….noynoying kc…puro propaganda at spins…NATO..lol

    • http://profile.yahoo.com/UZF4OTGY4BREFE42RXP7FZJKFY Ding

      Ikaw ‘tong kung anu-anong pinagdadadak-dakdak, ang dami-dami mong pinagdududukdok, sana samahan mo ng kahit isang tama o totoo.

    • legislex

      Hehehe maganda na balita batikos pa rin kay PNoy.  Pag masama ang balita kasalanan ni Pnoy.  Pag maganda, hindi niya kagagawan.  Have you not been reading the papers?  Survey conducted on businessmen in the Philippines showed that they are investing in the Philippines partly because they have felt the reform being made by Pnoy in our government.  These businessmen, my friend, also contribute to the growth of our economy given that some of them are BPO operators. 

  • legislex

    This recent article confirms my previous comments that the forecasts made by World Bank and ADB are way off. In their original forecasts, World Bank and ADB merely projected that the Philippines will only grow by 4.3% this year and 5% next year.  Their projection are much less than the 5-6% projection of our economic managers.  After the GDP growth for the first semester was reported, World Bank and ADB revised their forecasts to 5% this year.  I foresee that World Bank and ADB will again revise their forecasts in the following months.  And still the people working in these institutions consider themselves experts in their fields.    

    • http://www.facebook.com/people/Klein-Mo/1764894963 Klein Mo

      Forecasting is a tricky business. People even bet on it in advanced economies. Typically, underestimation is also more prevalent than overestimation in the case of non-government institutions – or at least numbers  released by observers will always be lower than the ones released by the government. Reputation takes a hit more in cases of overestimation rather than underestimation. Being more conservative allows businesses/investors to operate with greater margins for potential costly structural volatility. 

      • legislex

        I agree that in forecasting underestimation is more prevalent. But if your forecast is more than 30% lower than the actual result, then it is no longer forecasting – it is guessing.  I just can’t imagine an airline company’s forecaster would give a price forecast for aviation fuel at P60.00 for the next 12 months, and it later turned out to be only P40.00.  Surely, the airline company will loss a lot of customers because it will be charging a much higher airfare in advance bookings to its customers based on the erroneous forecast.  

        The same is true with ADB and WB.  Their forecasts affect interest rate charges for the Philippines because lenders rely on their figures. Their erroneous forecasts cause us a lot of harm because we are paying higher interest rates than we deserve.  It is important therefore for these forecasters in WB and IMF to be as accurate as they can be and base their forecasts on existing data, and not rely on pure guesswork.

    • http://twitter.com/xxxriainxxx xxxriainxxx

      What can you do, WB and ADB are working against Philippine interests. This came to fore when ADB let it slip that Philippines should keep importing rice- this at the expense of our national rice sufficiency efforts.



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