NSCB: Most signs point to slower Q3 growthBy Ana G. Roa
Philippine Daily Inquirer
The country would likely see slower growth in the third quarter as the mix of indicators used to forecast economic activity registered a slight dip, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) said in a report late Thursday.
After accelerating for four consecutive quarters, the composite leading economic indicators, or LEIs, slightly fell in the third quarter of 2012, pointing to a possible weakening of the economy, the NSCB said.
The LEIs grew 0.146 in the third quarter of the year from the revised 0.206 in the second quarter, the NSCB reported.
This indicates a possible slowdown of economic activity in the country for the quarter,” it explained.
Only four of the 11 indicators that made up the composite LEI contributed positively in the third quarter.
The positive contributors include terms of trade index, electric energy consumption, stock price index and foreign exchange rate.
The positive contributors accounted for only 27.8 percent of the total in the third quarter, a sharp decline from 78.9 percent in the second quarter.
On the other hand, the negative contributors were money supply, total merchandise imports, wholesale price index, visitor arrivals, hotel occupancy rate, number of new businesses and consumer price index.
The negative contributors accounted for 72.2 percent of the total in the third quarter, up from 21.1 percent in the previous quarter.
Moreover, five indicators that contributed positively during the second quarter became negative contributors in the third quarter. They are hotel occupancy rate, money supply, number of new businesses, visitor arrivals and total merchandise imports.
Meanwhile, electric energy consumption and foreign exchange rate changed from negative contributors to positive contributors.
The NSCB and the National Economic and Development Authority jointly developed the LEI System to serve as basis for short-term forecasting of the macroeconomic activity of the country.
The LEIS factors in the behavior of indicators that consistently move upward or downward before the actual expansion or contraction of overall economic activity, the NSCB said.
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