NEDA stands firm on ’11 growth target for Philippines

The Philippine economy may “comfortably” grow at least 4 percent in 2011 and more than 5 percent in 2012, according to a top official of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).

“The indicators are going up. The exports, I think, probably have bottomed, which means the growth rate is on the way up. But people should not also discount the long-term benefits of good governance,” NEDA assistant director-general Ruperto P. Majuca told reporters.

Majuca also said the disbursement program had also been accelerated, which would translate to a healthy gross domestic product (GDP) figure for the year.

Still, the government’s growth prospects for 2012 appear to be more optimistic than that of the private sector.

According to OCBC Bank of Singapore, the Philippine economy will likely grow by a modest pace of 3.7 percent in the coming year on sluggish exports and investments.

In its publication “Asia Outlook 2012” dated December 8, OCBC said the global economy could decelerate further at the turn of the year. It said the European sovereign debt crisis could snowball as Greece, Ireland and Portugal would come under additional stresses, threatening even economic stalwarts such as France, Belgium and even Germany.

And although the US economy is expected to stabilize next year, it will still be plagued by fiscal problems.

Following the disappointing 3.2-percent year-on-year GDP growth recorded in the third quarter, OCBC said growth in 2011 would likely come in at 4 percent, falling short of the official forecast of 4.5-5.5 percent.

This poor performance was largely attributed to the drop in exports as well as the production shortfall in the aftermath of two major typhoons.

“We expect these factors to continue weighing growth prospect in 2012, particularly as the adverse second-round impact from the typhoons are likely to linger till mid-2012,” the research said.

But the NEDA official said the country’s prospects are even better for 2012 because the government would have pumped up spending by then, while public-private partnership projects would have gained momentum.