Early indicators point to strong 2013 growth

BSP cites higher vehicle, power sales

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Prospects for the Philippine economy remain bright with several key leading indicators pointing to the likelihood that the expected rapid growth in the first half would be sustained in the coming months.

According to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), healthy car sales and higher energy consumption were among the early signs that the economy would continue to outperform its peers in the region.

The Philippine economy grew 7.8 percent in the first quarter, beating even China, the region’s perennial growth driver. Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan last month said the economy likely expanded by 7.5 percent in the second quarter.

“There are indications that it might continue to be firm,” said Zeno Abenoja, director of the BSP’s economic research department.

Apart from car and energy sales, Abenoja also said that the composite purchasing managers index (PMI) remained 57.3 points or above the 50-point threshold that was considered healthy.

He said the PMI for the manufacturing, services and the retail industries at the end of June stood at 57.1, 59.8, and 55.5 points, respectively. The only outlier was the PMI for supplier deliveries, which stood at 47.9 points.

The PMI, which is published locally by the Philippine Institute for Supply Management (PISM), is a measure of an industry’s health based on new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. A PMI score of more than 50 indicates a month-on-month expansion of an industry, while a score below 50 indicates a contraction.

Abenoja also cited the most recent report by the Chamber of Auto Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (Campi), which showed car sales grew by 16.5 percent in the first two months of the second quarter of 2013.

“According to Campi, the performance of the local automotive industry remained strong owing to the continuous robust growth of the economy,” the BSP said.

Energy sales also rose 7.2 percent in the first two months of the second quarter, the BSP said, citing data from Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), the country’s biggest electricity distributor. “According to Meralco, the growth of commercial energy sales was mainly associated with the private services and real estate services sub-sector,” the BSP said.

Despite the expected rapid growth of the economy for the rest of the year, Abenoja said consumer prices would likely stay steady until the end of the year.

“Emerging baseline inflation forecast indicate that headline inflation will fall within target range for 2013 and 2014,” he said.

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  • Manong Johnny

    GDP during Election Years:

    1986-Q1 = -0.1%. . . . 1995-Q1 = 4.8% . . . . 2007-Q1 = 6.3%
    1986-Q1 = 2.8% . . . . 1995-Q2 = 4.3% . . . . 2007-Q2 = 7.6%
    1987-Q1 = 3.1% . . . . 1998-Q1 = 1.8% . . . . 2010-Q1 = 8.4%
    1987-Q2 = 3.6% . . . . 1998-Q2 = -0.8%. . . . 2010-Q2 = 8.9%
    1988-Q1 = 6.0% . . . . 2001-Q1 = 2.5% . . . . 2013-Q1 = 7.8%
    1988-Q2 = 2.4% . . . . 2001-Q2 = 3.0% . . . . 2013-Q2 = 7.5%
    1992-Q1 = 2.2% . . . . 2004-Q1 = 7.3%
    1992-Q2 = -0.3%. . . . 2004-Q2 = 7.7%
    (NSCB data, based on contant prices, adjusted for inflation)

    Do indicators point to strong 2013 growth? Nothing could be further from the truth. For an election year like 2013, the Q2 GDP is dishearteningly lower than Q1. Despite the wasteful pork barrel and massive election spending stimulus of PNoy leading up to the May election, the Q2 GDP still managed to slide down. Looking at past data, such disappointment in the economy has never happened during GMA’s time. With the possible tapering off of US Fed’s QE later in the year and other global headwinds, it is highly doubtful if developing economies like PHL will see a strong second half. In fairness to NEDA Chief Jun Balisacan, he did come out a week ago to warn the public about a “robust” Q2 GDP, but not something to crow about. PNoy has a knack for disappointing expectations, to say the least. Like mother like son.

  • adwellv

    “Prospects for the Philippine economy remain bright with several key leading indicators pointing to the likelihood that the expected rapid growth in the first half would be sustained in the coming months.”

    –gandang pakinggan. Music to our ears. Actual vs. expectations.

  • PinoyDude

    A endless thank you for the OFW population because we have a rising middle class.

    For the government, just do your homework to attract more FDIs.

    It’s all about creating job opportunities locally.

  • guest1500

    Filipinos are buying more cars. This will be good for Japan, Thailand and China who makes the parts for these cars. It would be better for manufacturing if the Philippines is producing these itself because it will give good jobs to Filipinos.

  • txtman

    _________ FACE THE FACTS _______
    .
    AS LONG AS THE PENOY GOVERNMENT
    CONTINUE THE SPINS
    THE PHILIPPINES WILL ALWAYS A GARBAGE
    PRESENT PH GROWTH = OFWs MONEY GROWTH
    CREATE JOBS
    NOT CONDOMS
    PITIFUL

    • Nelson Uy

      What you wish for you will get bro. Garbage in garbage out. You will reap what you sow. Peace!

    • http://twitter.com/erncastillo ern

      this is so far the best government the filipinos ever had…..so shut up…..do your part….start with yourself.

  • txtman

    __________ KNOW THE FACTS _______
    .
    GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS 2012:
    _____ CHINA- $ 8,230 BILLIONS = 13.27% OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
    _____ PHILIPPINES – $ 250 BILLIONS = 0.40% OF THE WORLD ECONOMY
    .
    GROWTH RATE DAW ( 1ST QUARTER)
    ____ PHILIPPINES 7.8% X GDP = $19 BILLION ( FOR WHOLE YEAR DAPAT YAN)
    _____________________ SO 19 DIVIDED BY 4 = $ 4.75 BILLIONS ( THE SAME
    _____________________ GROWTH AMOUNT OF THE OFWs REMITTANCES
    .
    ___ CHINA 7.7% X GDP = $ 633.71 BILLIONS
    ____________________ 633.71 DIVIDED BY 4 = $158.42 BILLIONS – MOSTLY
    ____________________ FROM THEIR EXPORTS.
    .
    $ 4.75 BILLIONS COMPARED TO $158.42 BILLIONS
    ____ MAY COMPARISON BA?
    CHINA’S EXPORTS JOBS COMPARED TO PHILIPPINES REMITTANCES
    ___ WITH DECREASING EXPORTS JOBS
    ___ MAY COMPARISON BA?
    .
    SO, MAY DAPAT BANG IPAGYABANG ANG PHILIPPINES???????????
    TAMA NA ANG PAMBOBOLA
    CREATE JOBS, WILL LESSEN POVERTY
    NOT CONDOMS
    WATCH FOX NEWS
    ____ SPECIALLY BILL O’REILLY & HANNATY
    ____ PARA MATOTO KAYONG MAG-ISIP
    PITIFUL

    • mike

      Relak brother… di naman tanga lahat ng tao at alam naman ng lahat ang totoo pero ok na rin yang balita baka sakali may mga investor pa na papasok sa pinas,

      • txtman

        AHAHAHAHA
        MORE THAN A YEAR NA YUNG PILA BALE INVESTOR
        ____ NA PINAGYAYABANG NI PENOY
        MERON BA????
        PAPAANO MAY PAPASOK NA INVESTOR
        ____ CORRUPTION IS HIGHER TODAY cover-up nga lang
        ng mga corrupt media lapdogs
        ____ SUPERMAHAL ANG KORYENTE
        ____ SUPER-KUPAD TRANSPORTATION
        ____ SUPER-HIRAP PUMUNTA SA PINAS- imagine walang mga direct flights to the Philippines. Tingin mo ba magtyataga mga foreigners dyan?
        ____SUPER MAHAL PUMUNTA SA PINAS – imagine mo sino naman ang matino ang pag-iisip pumunta sa pinas kung cheaper pumunta sa China, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam or Cambodia?
        ____ SUPER MAHAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SA PINAS
        ____ SUPER-KUPAD MGA SULAT/PACKAGES SA PINAS
        ____ SUPER DUMI ANG PINAS
        ____ MAHAL MGA HOTELS/FOOD/SERVICES SA PINAS
        ___ YOU HAVE A VERY CORRUPT MEDIA
        ____ SUPER-PANGIT MGA FACILITIES
        ETC. ETC. ETC.
        MANGARAP KA NA LANG NA DILAT MGA MATA MO
        MAKIKINABANG LANG MGA KKK & RICH PEOPLE
        AS LONG AS SUPER CORRUPT ANG GOVERNMENT & MEDIA
        ______ MATULOG KA NA LANG & HAVE A SWEET DREAM
        PITIFUL

      • mike

        brother mag dasal ka muna baka ikay bangungutin. Sana magising ka pa bukas at kung di man swerte mo ligtas ka na sa mga nasusulat mong problema sa itaas.

    • Nelson Uy

      British retailer eyes PH for Asia expansion

      Philippine Daily Inquirer

      9:17 pm | Friday, August 9th, 2013

      14 54 24

      The executive adviser of Sainsbury’s, one of the biggest supermarket chains in the United Kingdom, is considering the Philippines as the next potential country for the company’s expansion plans in Asia.

      In an interview with reporters, Sainsbury’s Ian F. Wade disclosed that he would be recommending to the company’s board that the Philippines “ought to be next on their list” after the planned expansion in China.

      “I’ve been coming here [for the past] 26 years and I think your country is in the best shape that I ever remember, and I think your middle class is growing much more quickly than it has ever done before. The spending power is growing and [companies like] SM probably need some competition,” Wade explained.

      What’s this Brod Taxman disinformation?

    • tadasolo

      Hey Taxman. You are providing misinformation. Using your calculations, the 19 BILLION DOLLARS per year growth is ADDITIONAL. The reminttances stays the same or could even be less due to rising Pesos. Growth is GROWTH. Don’t tell me that the OFWs suddenly got a raise double their salary from last year????

  • txtman

    CHINA IS GROWING BY MEANS OF EXPORTS
    _____ MEANING CHINA HAS A LOT OF JOBS
    THE PHILIPPINES IS GROWING BY DOMESTIC CONSUMER SPENDINGS
    _____ WITH DECREASING EXPORTS
    _____ MEANING, THANK YOU OFWs – MONEY
    _____ MEANING IN THE PHILIPPINES, THERE ARE NO JOBS
    .
    KAYA NGA, PURO MALLS
    MALLS
    MALLS
    MALLS
    SINO NAKINABANG SA PERA NG MGA PINOYS?
    _____ CHINA
    KAYA HAYAN
    AT THE END CHINA PA RIN ANG WINNER
    _____ FILIPINOS ALWAYS THE LOSSERS
    _____ NO THANKS TO CORRUPT POLITICIANS & CORRUPT MEDIA
    ____ WHO CONTINUOUSLY SPIN THE FILIPINO PEOPLE
    KAYA MANOOD KAYO NG FOX NEWS
    ____ SPECIALLY BILL O’REILLY PARA MATOTO KAYO MAG-ISIP
    PITIFUL

    • blue_57

      No. Thanks to you and all crabs like you for bringing down the Philippines. If only Philippines can choose her own people, he could have thrown you in China. The Philippines doesn’t even need you.

  • UrHONOR

    STEADY….steady she goes…

    • txtman

      TAMA NGA
      STEADY….
      STEADY….
      STEADY GROWTH OF OFWs REMITTANCES
      PHILIPPINES GDP GROWTH IS EQUIVALENT TO THE OFWs
      _____ REMITTANCES GROWTH
      MEANING, PALAMUNIN ANG PILIPINAS
      ____ NO JOBS = POVERTY
      CREATE JOBS
      NOT CONDOMS
      PITIFUL

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