China industrial output jumps to five-month high


CHINA : Graphic charting China’s industrial output, which jumped to a five-month high in July, official data showed Friday. AFP

BEIJING – China’s key industrial production growth accelerated to a five-month high in July, the government announced Friday as a series of statistics gave positive pointers for the world’s second-largest economy.

Industrial production, which measures output at factories, workshops and mines, rose 9.7 percent year-on-year, well above analyst expectations of 9.0 percent in a survey by Dow Jones Newswires.

Authorities also announced steady expansion in retail sales and fixed asset investment, and a benign inflation figure of 2.7 percent, unchanged on last month.

Analysts said the figures pointed to a more stable outlook for China’s economy – seen as a key driver of global growth – after months of mounting pessimism.

Lu Ting, a Hong Kong-based economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, told AFP the “overall figures are actually very good, especially the industrial output figure.”

Gross domestic product (GDP) in China – seen as a key driver of global growth – expanded 7.8 percent in 2012, its slowest annual pace in 13 years.

Growth slipped to 7.7 percent in the January-March period and slowed further to 7.5 percent in the second quarter, raising alarm bells among economists over possible further weakness.

But after Friday’s figures Lu told AFP: “The momentum, if maintained, would in fact make everyone’s estimation about the second half rather pessimistic, so we will likely see a round of GDP forecast upgrades soon.”

The output figures came on the heels of robust trade figures Thursday.

Exports and imports, which had contracted in June, rebounded in July, growing 5.1 percent and 10.9 percent year-on-year respectively, according to Customs.

Two-way trade rose 7.8 percent year-on-year, slightly lower than the government’s eight percent target for this year but “showing a stabilizing and recovering trend,” Customs said.

July’s output growth figure was higher than June’s 8.9 percent and marked the best performance since the 9.9 percent recorded for January and February, which were released together due to distortions related to Chinese New Year.

Separately, retail sales, a key indicator for consumer spending, rose 13.2 percent in July compared with the same month last year, the NBS said, only a marginal slowing from 13.3 percent in June.

Growth in fixed asset investment, a key measure of government spending on infrastructure, increased 20.1 percent during the first seven months of this year compared with the same period in 2012, the NBS said, unchanged on last month’s rate.

Earlier Friday, the NBS said that inflation held steady at 2.7 percent year-on-year in July, a result seen as potentially giving the authorities some leeway to take measures to boost the economy if needed.

The consumer price index (CPI) rise was marginally below market expectations of 2.8 percent, according to the Dow Jones survey. The CPI reading – a main gauge of inflation – has broadly eased since hitting 3.2 percent in February during the Chinese New Year holiday, although it rebounded in June to a four-month high.

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  • ghzoc


  • ozkid

    I have strong doubts about the figures. china is master of deceit, manipulation and falsification. Let’s just wait and see how their economy will bottom up.

  • chiefsiop

    countries in the west have learned their lessons. Don’t put your money to a greedy and cheap country that will suck the life out of you. Investing in China because of cheap labor completely destroyed western economy. The best thing they can do is to pull out from China. China doesn’t play fair. They manipulate their currency and most probably their economic data.

  • upupperclassman

    Your column is so biased holding back my comment. Shame on you.

  • DurangoJoe

    This is hard to believe especially if the data is coming from the government. Only late last month LI keqiang ordered reduction in manufacturing output to stabilize the economy and China gets the opposite effect? But China is still in deep pile of sh!t with their lingering $2.4 trillion debt crisis. Arrogant China, you are going down- fast!

    • watchmacallit

      China is undergoing a structural reorganization. It’s Econ 101, economic cycles. The west, the USA, EU and all major economies have all gone through periods of economic downturns. The Australian economy escaped the recent recession due to heave exports to china. With the collapse of the Chinese economy so goes the Australian economy. GM survived due to its china market. The USA economy is inexorably linked to the Chinese economy. The collapse of the Chinese economy will bring with it the world economy. Do you think the Phil economy will survive unscathed? You stock market goes up and down based on positive or negative data from china and USA economies. It’s all funny money like a mini Las Vegas. There are no new jobs created, no new factories, people are not better off, people still scrambling for overseas jobs, and its all a mirage, a ponzi ready to implode too. Dont you think Phil humbling themselves to Taiwan the reason was moral? Of course not. Anyone can see its because Phil need the Taiwan more than Taiwan does. Phil need those precious Taiwan jobs because of its own rising unemployment. Bet you never thought this far nor seriously analyze the implication of your ulterior desire for the collapse of the Chinese economy. Think hard with your coconut and not run away with your emotions of misguided racism and nationalism.

      • DurangoJoe

        What is happening to China’s economy is a self-inflicted wound that instead of cutting her own wrist, China decided to cut her carotid artery.
        Corruption inside the communist Politburo caused this tailspin of economic disaster. China is suffering from ‘delusion of grandeur’ where she wants to brag to the entire world that it is now the most powerful country in the world by building the biggest building in the world, the longest bridge in the world, 6-lane highways, so many high-rise condominiums in Beijing and Shanghai but no one wants to live in because of severe pollution and people die of premature death resulting in ghost towns and mall. Only one word describes this phenomenon: stupidity. Local governments are encouraged by the Politburo to improve their infrastructure and housing by allowing easy borrowing from the government owned banks without analyzing what will happen to excessive construction projects, which is similar to the Wall street sub-prime stupidity. China is not “going under structural reorganization” but going into an ‘economic implosion’ – an economic collapse due to its own stupid actions. If you crack your coconut open you will find out how serious the problem is.

      • watchmacallit

        What in the world are you talking about deciding to cut its carotid artery? There is no denying corruption is a big problem in China. The rapid growth of china the last decade from a largely agrarian based economy to the 2nd largest in the world was like nothing the world has ever seen nor experience much less China itself. Priorities were placed towards economic growth largely at the expense of structural reforms and control measures (e.g., intellectual properties, food safety, industrial safety, corruption, monetary and financial, pollution, etc.). China’s spending the last few years were instrumental not only in allowing it to escape the deep recession in the west, EU and usa but also were partly key in providing the crucial support for the world economy needed during the challenging period, including the phils. Without its spending and continued investments in US treasury bonds, Australia and much of the world would have been pulled downward by the usa recession, the US would be hard pressed to roll out its many QE monetary policies. You should be glad, your economy is supported by China’s monetary policies too. Your stock market is largely fueled by funny money devoid of any basic internal economic fundamentals and base line support. Its a ponzi market and is in danger of imploding. Your real estate is also fueled by this irrational exuberance. Ask yourself, where is the growth in employment? Where are the jobs? why are your workers fleeing in droves scrambling for the overseas jobs as OFW? Has life been better off for the 80% of the population? The implosion of China’s economy will have dire consequences on the world economy including yours. Your stock market is driven primarily by news and data coming out of the usa and china. its growth has since been drastically reduced and slowed due to the us fed reserve monetary policy of easing out of QE policies. just because you have a robust 1st quarter, largely fueled by the effects of the election, by money coming back from you know where…swiss bank accounts…you guys think you are already in heaven, on top of the world and invincible? you should open up your mind and use your coconut at least sometimes, even though phils is awash with coconuts. China will get through this difficulty times, just like it has before with even greater challenges. China is a civilization that has survived when all other ancient civilizations of its time (roman, egyptian, assyrian, greek, etc) have vanished. It will weather through this crisis. Why do you suppose the mandarin character for crisis includes two syllables, danger and opportunity? Because China knows (since ancient times) that whenever there is a crisis there is also a chance of even greater opportunity. Think about it…….

      • DurangoJoe

        China cutting its own carotid artery means China’s economy is terminal- cannot be fixed. Open your eyes wide but China is in a bad economic situation here, like in a economic quicksand -sinking rapidly. Most of what I know about China’s economy is from reading Bloomberg expert’s opinions. Ok, that carotid artery thingy is mine. China is in a crossroad. Xi Jinping wants to convert China’s economy into a consumer-driven instead of manufacturing driven economy which is not going to happen because the workers are being paid peanuts. The balance of trade between the Philippines and China is lopsided. The Philippines is helping China’s economy more than the other way around. Just count how many SM and Robinson malls in China while China is into illegal mining, lumber and shabo distribution and fake stuff in the Philippines.

        What a shame. Regarding economic growth in China, the Chinese middle class wants to control pollution(air and water) instead of economic growth. Again, it’s not going to happen because the rich people of China wants both. So now the Politburo will use the only method they know best- fakery and lies. Now China resorts to fake economic data, fake manufacturing data, fake banking reports etc. Five Chinese corporations were in the top ten highest earning corporations in the world the year before. But not a single Chinese corporation made it this year. Bad omen for China’s economy. What this means is that investors lost confidence in the China’s market. In summary, all areas of China’s economy is rotting like a dead rat and it will only get worse. The only thing that is getting bigger rapidly is China’s debt. Acc. to experts the $2.4 trillion debt will possibly double at the end of the year. China is even asking the help/advice of the World Bank to stabilize the economy. Ok, your turn. I am waiting…don’t write your response in day.

      • watchmacallit

        Then with your gloomy predictions, you should get ready for a world economic depression that will surely unfold the like of which the world has never seen. Get ready for the collapse of Wall Street, Phil Stock market, real estate and contraction of trade. Get ready for the return of your unemployed OFW in droves to add to the resulting unemployment that will surely ensue. You will then hope that this did not happen and wish for those happy days.

      • DurangoJoe

        The Philippine economy is diversified and unique. It is the only economy that was unscathed from the Asian financial crisis, the Yen crisis, the 1987 market crash, the Dot .com bubble, the vicious Wall Street sub-prime debacle and maybe even the next big one. The source of stability is the money remittances from OFWs which is a source of $dollar in-flow going straight to the banks. As you know, healthy $dollar bank deposits makes the economy sweeter than honey. The average dollar remittances of OFWs per year is $15-20 billion and as high as $21.93 billion last 2012. Filipinos are hard-working people and willing to make sacrifices. While China’s economic structure is the weakest of them all because it is based on manufacturing- cheap labor.

        If the cost of labor is cheaper in Bangladesh then go the companies to Bangladesh leaving China like a loser. Xi Jinping’s vision of transforming China’s economy to consumer-driven is like a car with no wheels- that’s why they are making all kinds of serious mistakes.

      • watchmacallit

        And where do you supposed the OFW employer’s money and business are originating from? Are these economies, the middle east, in particular not relying on heavy exports to china as well? Australia, heavy reliance on exports to China? And the lists goes on and on. Its a ripple effect and mutually interconnected world and reliance. Yes, Phil economy is lucky this time around. don’t count your eggs. china is entering into uncharted territory as far as its realignment to consumer driven economy. It will not be easy and serious mistakes is inevitable. there will be challenges, road blocks, pitfall but the opportunity and the resulting benefits outweighs the inherent risks. In challenges and dangers there are opportunities. Life is not full of roses or grandeur without challenges and roadblocks. China will weather through this challenge just as it has for the last 5 thousand years. The alternative is not an option. So you can keep wishing on and hoping for your pessimistic outcomes. But remember, China’s collapse will inevitably touch every corners of the world economy including your very own. Regardless of what you and the rest of your crowd think and wish for, China will move on and move forward. Just ask GM, they have too much at stake with its China auto market. How about Boeing? Its future growth is relying heavily on China future growth. These are just a few of the world conglomerates that have pegged their current and future growth on the China market. If China so much us sneezes or hiccups, the rest of the world takes notice. Too much is at stake.

      • DurangoJoe

        You could be right and I could be wrong. We can’t tell what will happen in the future. Like you said, “China will weather through this challenge just as it has for the last 5 thousand.” And guess what happened after the last 5 thousand years? They ended up with two Chinas: Beijing and Taiwan. So it is still not resolved. Is it independence for Taiwan or reunification of both Chinas? Hard to say. Nice talking to you. Hope for the best.

      • watchmacallit

        we don’t have a crystal ball but we can surely rely on past historical experiences and data to at least provide an estimation of likely outcome. And if we have to rely on China’s history as a base line to assess likely outcome, the bet is on China’s side.

        The Taiwan issue was a result of an unfinished civil war due to the intervention of history. When the korean war started, the US redeployed its 7th fleet from Subic to the Taiwan Strait. China at that time was poor, has no viable navy, its air force is virtually non existence, it has no foreign reserve currency , no heavy industrial base, just emerged from a long civil war and its army is mostly a peasant army, therefore could not challenge the us 7th fleet or us military in Taiwan. Even at this sorry state, China fought the UN into a standstill during the korean war, although suffered heavily.

        Fast forward to the present, Taiwan and China are enjoying the best years of their relationship. Business and cultural exchanges is robust across the strait. Their people are free to travel both ways. Taiwan no longer calls for the reconquest of china and have settled in to the reality. China has patience and can wait. In time Taiwan will return to the motherland. Even if it will take another generation. Taiwan is watching closely the experiences of macau and hong kong as special administrative zones. This can also be applied to Taiwan with modification when the time is ripe.

        Yes, nobody can predict the future. Nice exchanging opinions with you too. Lets all pray for the best to all.

      • Crazy_horse101010

        funny experts that they had on ccct said that china might have a lot of detroits because of local government debt has been running amok. and they said that unless the government reforms they will have a national debt bigger than america and the central government has to bail out the banks. also unless china doest stop relying on buliding cheap goods the will be seroius problems with their economy these are chinese experts on their own channel this wasds shown last week. the higher the wages go the more expensive their junk will be. and what will kill them is if they get into a arms race to catch up with america

  • Mombasa69

    Unsold goods stored in unused Cities, Airports and Malls, over-production, all on the back of even more debt on top of the $23 TRILLION DEBT they already have (secretly hidden away at the local government level).

    Lol China would make Enron proud.

    Australia, one of the biggest suppliers of raw materials to China, has a mining slump, as does many other resource rich countries exporting to China, China’s stock market is a joke, it’s pretty obvious the Chinese GDP figures are just plucked out of thin air, like all of the funny money they created.

    China is going the same way as the USSR and Japan.

    I’m just going to sit back laugh and in a year or so say; I TOLD YOU SO.

    • watchmacallit

      Are you referring to the Phil economy? its stock market funny money euphoria with hardly new factories, unemployment and underemployment remain high, people still scrambling for overseas jobs? The last laugh will be you because the collapse of the Chinese economy will usher in a word wide depression the likes of which the world has never seen. Can you imagine the net contraction of over $8 trillion in global GDP? It will make the Great Depression peanuts, which incidentally started in Wall Street but spread across the world due to protectionism. So if Chinese economy goes,so will the us, Australian, Japanese, eu, African, and ASEAN economies, including the Philippine economy. You see unlike the 1930s we are more interconnected and interdependent on each other now and untangling this dependency will be a massive and intricate gordian tasks. You can’t take a sword just like Alexander the Great did to untie this gordian knot. This is no laughing matter not only for China but for the world economy too. The ramification of which you will live to regret. You won’t get the opportunity to sit down and laugh because you will be out of a job, inflation will make the weimar experience trifle and evaporate your funny paper dollars, you will join the long bread lines, join the ofw (if ever there are still jobs available), unless of course unless you are already one of the 1 percent super rich in the Philippine or you have enough gold stockpiled already. You will get the last laugh from yourself. And that is what is all but certain. It doesn’t take a genius to figure this out.

      • Crazy_horse101010

        and their people are still locking themselves in shipping crates to get out of there. havent seen very many americans or canadians doing that to get into china

  • Kairos

    And the pollution intake is also high among its citizens. More productions, more smokes. Seriously, China is becoming a theedville country.

    • watchmacallit

      You mean the gates of hell that is Manila?

      • engkantosakanto

        So, anong pinaglalaban mo pre?

      • watchmacallit

        watch ma call it?

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