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Strong fundamentals seen to fuel PH market recovery

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Local stocks may consolidate in the next few months but strong fundamentals amid global uncertainties could fuel a main index recovery to 6,800 this year, a fund manager from Sun Life of Canada said.

He added that the index was expected to retest previous record highs by next year.

Michael Gerard Enriquez, chief investment officer at the Philippine unit of the global insurance giant, told reporters on Thursday that the recent sell-off in the stock market was “overdone.” He said strong fundamentals should enable the market to regain focus, especially when the unwinding of quantitative easing (QE) in the United States was fully factored in.

Enriquez estimated that about $300 million, or a third of the foreign funds that rode on the local market’s runup earlier, had now exited while the bulk would be “long-only” funds. Based on indications from foreign brokers, he said the recent shakeout had uncovered good values and was now attracting bargain-hunters.

“The market run-up was mainly driven by good fundamentals, with hedge funds pushing asset prices higher because of the QE. If you take that away—the froth as we call it—we’re back to fundamentals,” Enriquez said.

“We will see the markets moving up again once we see clarity on second-quarter earnings,” he said. Lackluster trading is seen through the “ghost month” (Aug. 7 to Sept. 4, 2013). After this, Enriquez said the PSEi could start regaining traction.

The “ghost month” refers to a period in the Lunar calendar that is believed by Asians to be an unlucky time to make big moves such as acquiring a property, getting married or investing.

Sun Life sees local corporate earnings rising by an average of 12-15 percent this year but Enriquez said that if second-quarter results would turn out better than expected, the earnings growth projection could be increased to 16 percent.

Given the steep decline in the stock market recently, he said a “realistic” Philippine Stock exchange index target this year would be 6,800 and the retesting of the recent highs could occur by next year.

At the recent bottom close of 5,800, Enriquez estimated that investors were willing to pay 15 times projected earnings compared to the price to earnings (P/E) ratio of as high as 22x when the index peaked at about 7,400.


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Tags: forecasts , Philippines , Stock Market , stocks

  • Ako_Hiking

    The fundamentals hopefully will allow the growing economy of the Philippines to benefit the poor masses. Thus far all these Philippine economic gains have only benefit the rich but the poor in the country remain poor.

  • Maongoloid

    What is fundamentals? =P

  • joboni96

    self serving statements
    ng mga dumedenggoy sa mga pilipino

    invest in agricultural production
    sa mga probinsya no

    better to employ other pilipinos
    kaysa madenggoy ng intsik switik at dayuhan

  • Paolo Esguerra

    Aquino should be thankful to Arroyo for laying out the good economic fundamentals during her term, but the problem is that Aquino constantly tries to steal credit and instead blames her for anything that wrong and for his own shortcomings.

  • http://www.aquinocojuangco.gov.ph/ It’s No Time To Doubt Now

    Thank you to our beloved President PNoy for strengthening our economic fundamentals. The last few days have made it clear beyond reasonable doubt that Daang Matuwid is working. Because of our dear leader PNoy’s good governance, even the free fall last Monday and Tuesday could not be sustained. Our beloved President PNoy will always be there to catch us, just when we thought the downward trend would go on forever. That’s the power of faith.

    Sa Daang Matuwid, wala kang talo. Go with the flow, go with Daang Matuwid.

    and may I humbly suggest:
    vote straight LP in 2016
    vote Mar-Grace in 2016



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