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EXPERTS’ 2013 FORECAST

Bullish PH economy to rouse real estate industry

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CENTURY Properties’ Acqua Private Residences is expected to do well this year since residential demand will stay strong across all subsectors.

First in a series

What’s in store for the country’s property industry this year?

Going by the fearless forecast of five property analysts, the outlook for 2013 is rosy.

Julius Guevara, associate director for advisory services and head of consultancy and research of Colliers International, said that in general, “the bullish performance of the economy is seen to continue” in 2013. He said 2012 “proved to be a very good year for the Philippine economy and specifically for real estate.” He continued that “an end-of-year GDP (gross domestic product) growth rate between 6 and 7 percent has been forecast by various analysts, and we saw the stock market hit all-time highs during the past few months.”

Guevara added, “the residential condominium market has also exceeded historical sales levels this year, as low interest rates and record overseas remittances continue to fuel the housing boom.”

Colliers International recently released 10 forecast statements on the economy and property sectors for 2013—a collection of insights from various industry experts and Colliers.

“Similarly, the business process outsourcing (BPO) industry continued to drive the office property sector, and current vacancy rates in the major CBDs are in low single digits. The retail sector has also done tremendously well; occupancy rates in regional and superregional malls in Metro Manila are in the 90s. All in all, 2012 exceeded most of our expectations,” Guevara added.

Best real estate market

Rick Santos, CBRE founder and chair, noted: “We are now experiencing the best real estate market in the Philippines in the last 20 years. The Philippine real estate sector will have bright prospects in 2013. We see sustained growth in the BPO/office, residential, gaming and leisure sectors.”

Enrique Soriano, Ateneo program director for real estate and senior adviser for Wong+Bernstein Business Advisory, said: “Five years after the financial crisis triggered by a housing bubble, the global economy is convalescing. The Philippine economy is poised to move up. Real estate markets in all segments will grow. Some developers will fail and others will do better because they have a strategy and they have found exactly the right position.”

Claro dG. Cordero Jr., Jones Lang LaSalle’s head for research, consulting and valuation, said an estimated 11,200 units is expected to be completed within 2013 for the residential segment. He also explained that, though “the residential demand will stay strong across all subsegments, there are also various externalities which may challenge the growth of demand over the near- to medium-term.”

The first indicator cited by Colliers showed the Philippine economy would grow by around 6 percent in 2013. The forecast was made by Japanese financial services group Nomura and the World Bank. The World Bank raised its forecast for the Philippine GDP in 2013 to 6.2 percent, up from 5 percent. Nomura also raised its forecast for the GDP to 6.6 percent in 2013. “Growth is expected to tick even higher in 2013 because of the impact of the elections, fiscal improvement and governance reforms in private investments,” Nomura said.

Karlo Pobre, Colliers International’s analyst for research and advisory services, explained that the recent growth in GDP indicates that economic activities in the country have further expanded.

“The higher the GDP is, the more attractive we become, specifically to foreign investors. Investment opportunities should reflect on the property industry, considering the recent developments in the market. This should preferably materialize in the office and industrial sectors,” he said.

Sector contribution

Pobre added that currently the construction sector contributes roughly about 8 to 9 percent of the GDP, while real estate services is at 11 percent.

Soriano said: “the long anticipated growth trajectory will happen this year; something that we have not felt for a long time. We have had growth spurts in the past years but never a real, sustained momentum. This time it’s for real. Our economic fundamentals are getting better. The housing and construction market has assumed the lead role in this trajectory, domestic demand is growing, PPP (public-private partnership) infrastructure will continue its aggressive pace and the midyear local elections will boost spending.

“Overseas remittance will grow as the US economy continues to improve, albeit at an annualized rate of 1 percent and Europe’s crisis is apparently showing some signs of remission. With this I expect the economy to pick up steam and grow to 6.8 percent.”

(Next: Residential demand to stay strong across all segments)


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  • http://twitter.com/Umbokpitaw Doodz

    So many of my friends here in US are now in anguished and regretted why they bought a condo in the Philippines after that impulse of buying frenzy..Their toilet size condos are not
    worth the investment..There are many add ons to the cost, the maintenance fees,etcetera..It is a nightmare …BUYERS beware !!!!

  • http://twitter.com/PINOYPOWER100 JUAN DELA CRUZ

    This means more jobs!

    God bless the Philippines.

  • upupperclassman

    It is very hard to believe the 5 analysts talking about rosy prospect for real estate. I am bombarded with endless txt messages everyday offering to sell to me condominium unit at no down payment from major developers. I am sure many of you have the same experience. It only shows that there too many condo units under construction and developers are having a hard time selling them. No down payment is the most dangerous way to create mortgage bubbles.

  • iping2sison

    All real-estate developers are worst polluters of the environment. They don’t construct waste-water treatment facilities, thus, waste-water are dumped into creeks, streams and rivers. The government should go after these polluters.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_E5Q5PV6KNYNVSOCHXJVJPYUVFE cion

    The real estate growth plus foreigner investments  during the past twenty years should be credited to scholar leader in economics of Pres Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and his predecessor Pres Fidel Ramos , both has productively introduce the outsource industry having foreign company bring jobs into the Phl for Filipinos  (the Call Centers) and job opportunity abroad ( OFW) who have been  investing their hard-earn money  purchasing condominiums for their personal investment and with their sizable constant remittances for their family contributed a greal deal to the healthy economy every Filipino businessmen are currently enjoying. in addtion tourism (Balikbayan) whose love for their motherland enormously helps, has been a big plus.

    • tskpinas

      remittance driven economy doesn’t sound like a healthy economy to be honest.

  • rodben

    This is paid advertisement by the residential condo and subdivisions OFW’s now are wise in buying property instead they buy land than condo or subdivision unit because aside of very expensive no guarantee money back in the future.

  • kimkim1226

    money of OFW who is the  big contributor of ph economy, big help to real state industry.

  • parefrank

    It is already like it was in the USA or in Spain. A “booming” real state industry which makes more and more stupid condos where you stay for 20000 a month or 5 millins to buy like a bird in a cage. All around is expensive and you are far away from any job where you could earn the expenses, and this on a stable basis.
    Looking around tje corner, without rosy goggles, you rather see a waiting bubble crash. At least 80% Filipinos can not afford it these units and if, soon RP is a complete urban area, who will work in agriculture, fishiing, mining farming? “Export” another 10 million OFWs to get their remittances and then import all the needed goods?
    Besides, which intelligent investor will buy into such condos like in Manila, considering that the climate change will not be stopped and Manila sooner or later will be flooded by the rising sea level, aside from partly sitting on a quake prone area? Look the Maldives. Before a world famous vacation and diving paradise and now already  near to go under, just inches above the still rising sea. Greenland ice melts unexpected fast and if all melts, there is not much reaeining from Manila and even countries like Bangladesh. The, “35 story condo for sale, price 1000 dollar”…… What really is needed are affordable housing projects outside the existing cities, but with acceptable standards not like the expensive but lousy victim shelters. The problem is that there one can not make a condo unit for half a million and sell it then for 3 and more millions, maybe via sales agents who get 10 and more percent of the sales price. Former Chief Justice Corona was a good example of how much can be price-reduced and still there is a big profit. Unfortunately, Corona was blamed for the discounts, not the seller for the extreme overpricing.

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_E5Q5PV6KNYNVSOCHXJVJPYUVFE cion

      The corrupt politician made CJ Corona a scapegoat,but many intelligent and informed Filipinos knew who to believe and trust

    • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_BVDPLO3ZGZZGMPB76R3WDFU2AQ Red Eagle

      If you can’t write in correct English, it’s better to just write it in Filipino.  It was painful reading your post.

      Walang masama sa pagsulat sa Filipino.

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/JGOS6OO2YQFL55A3K2GKSG2U3I Zyril

        Give the man a chance to practise his English writing skill and to improve his grammar. Lahat naman tayo nagdadaan sa ganyan at palagay ko naman marami dito hindi nila bread and butter ang pagsusulat. This INQ portion was not intended  as a literary article expecting a Nobel Piece Prize award but only a means of exchanging views, comments and ways of knowing what we feel about the article or report. Marami dito ultimo wrong spelling eh pinapansin pa. Such bunch of hypocrites na kala mo nakapagsulat na sila ng highly acclaimed literary piece.  

      • Diablo_III

        Ito namang si Red Agila, pati pagsulat sa English binabantayan.. Nabasa mo ba lahat ang sinulat niya? Pambihira talaga ang “CRAB” mentality.

  • Pwe Jade

    Rosy pictures for Real Estate.

    But deal only with the legit.  There is a scam brewing in Tandang Sora, QC perpetuated by a vulture from Tierra Pura Homes, Culiat, QC.  Heard that even QC Hall officials are even involved.

    Home buyers in QC had a blast dealing with Carmelita Pujeda (of Tierra Pura Scam fame). PUJEDA BUILDERS & CONSTRUCTION SUPPLY of Culiat, QC.  The deals which involve millions of pesos get botch.The deal is to pay Pujeda millions of pesos for some dubious properties in Kamias, Tandang Sora and Culiat.  The properties are now in Sulit and AyosDito.When you are all excited about the acquisition, Lita Pujeda will kill you and prevent the buyers from the properties.  She would simply disappear.  If followed-up, her attack dogs and pal friends (as in palamunin) will bark at you and would simply pan “ano’ng deal”?Complain to QC Hall?  FOrget it.  Some heavy weights are actually involved in this scam.Tell all home buyers and friends.  Easy targets are OFWs and Balikbayans.



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