PH remittance growth fell to a near 4-yr low in April
MANILA, Philippines – Overseas remittances from Filipinos grew at their weakest pace in nearly four years in April, as households became more cautious amid the economic fallout from the war in the Middle East.
Latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that cash remittances rose by just 2 percent year-on-year to $2.7 billion in April. While still higher than a year ago, the growth rate was the weakest since May 2022, when remittances grew by 1.8 percent.
READ: PH remittance growth slows to near 3-yr low
The amount of cash remittances received in April was also the lowest since May 2025’s $2.66 billion.
On a monthly basis, remittance growth eased from the 2.3-percent increase recorded in March, when cash remittances reached $2.9 billion.
Carlo Asuncion, chief economist at UnionBank of the Philippines, said the softer growth points to emerging headwinds to income and deployment conditions amid the Middle East war.
“Cash remittance growth remained positive but softened notably, pointing to more cautious household flows amid global uncertainty and tighter budgets among overseas workers,” he said.
Meanwhile, Jonathan Ravelas, senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., said the slowdown does not yet signal a structural weakening in remittance flows, noting that it is only due to temporary headwinds.
“You’re seeing a mix of seasonality after a strong first quarter, normalization from elevated post-pandemic flows, and some softness in key host economies,” he said.
“The Middle East tensions may have had a marginal effect, but given the diversified deployment of Filipino workers, it’s not the main driver,” he added.
From January to April, cash remittances increased by 2.6 percent to $11.4 billion. However, this was also the slowest cumulative growth rate since May 2022, when remittances expanded by 2.5 percent.
The United States remained the largest source of cash remittances during the first four months of the year, accounting for 39.7 percent of the total. It was followed by Singapore with 7.3 percent and Saudi Arabia with 6.4 percent.
Looking ahead, Asuncion said remittance inflows are expected to remain resilient.
“At the same time, the recent signing of a peace deal in the Middle East could help stabilize employment prospects and support remittance flows from the region, reducing downside risks in the near term,” he said.
“Overall, remittances should remain resilient, but growth is likely to stay modest as elevated inflation continues to constrain both senders and recipients,” he added.
As it is, the BSP maintained its forecast for remittance growth at 3 percent this year and in 2027, noting that there have been no signs of mass repatriation or widespread deployment bans despite the war.
The central bank added that remittances will “remain a key source of external stability.” Unlike private capital, which typically retreats during economic downturns or natural disasters, remittances often swell as expatriates step in to provide relief to their families back home. INQ
