Philippine risk profile worsens as Iran war fuels oil shock, economic crimes

MANILA, Philippines — The war in Iran and the oil-price shock it unleashed have underscored the Philippines’ vulnerability to economic crime and geopolitical risk in South and Southeast Asia, a new report said.

The Philippines scored 72.6 out of 100 in the 2026 Economic Crime and Geopolitics Index (ECGI), a measure that assesses corruption levels, the severity of economic crime, public response and geopolitical pressures to gauge how these forces shape political stability.

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The score edged up from 71.65 in November 2025, keeping the Philippines in the “high-risk” category.

‘Early warning’

The index was developed by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, a Sri Lankan foreign policy analyst and senior fellow at the Millennium Project in Washington, D.C., to serve as a “forward-looking early-warning mechanism” for governments, investors and security analysts.

“This shift is not primarily the result of domestic governance deterioration. Rather, it reflects the systemic impact of external geopolitical pressures, including energy supply disruptions, rising import costs, and supply chain instability triggered by the Iran war,” the report read.

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“The disruption of key maritime chokepoints has amplified the strategic importance of Indo-Pacific economies, effectively transforming what was once a fragmented risk landscape into a continuous high-risk corridor spanning South and Southeast Asia,” it added. /dda