Low risk of massive brownouts seen in 2025

POWER GENERATION Linemen set up power cables along New York street in Cubao, Quezon City on Thursday, May 30, 2024. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) expect electricity rates to increase further as around P15.77 billion worth of power generation cost may be passed on to consumers over the next three years. INQUIRER PHOTO / GRIG C. MONTEGRANDE

Filipinos may not have to deal with brownouts next year, particularly during hotter months and election season, as power supply is expected to be stable, an official of the spot electricity market said.

In a briefing on Tuesday, Independent Electricity Market Operation of the Philippines’ (IEMOP) head of trading operations Isidro Cacho Jr. said they were seeing a “stable” electricity supply for 2025, especially if there were no unplanned power plant outages.

IEMOP operates the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM), an avenue where power is traded between producers and distributors to boost their supply.

“On the outlook, [it’s] very positive so hopefully we maintain that for the whole year,” Cacho told reporters.

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Chances are also slim that the main grids would be placed under red or yellow alert during summer, he said.

This is as the Philippines is expected to experience the La Niña phenomenon, which can result in above-normal rainfall or an increase in tropical cyclones.

In a yellow alert, the power supply can still meet demand, but it will serve as a warning that when a plant breaks down one way or another, it will result in brownouts. A red alert, meanwhile, means that supply is no longer sufficient to meet demand. Brownouts could happen if demand is not managed.

Energy consumption surged during this year’s summer months, as El Niño worsened the hot weather, prompting the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines to put the main grids under red or yellow alerts.

However, he said that maintenance works on power plant facilities were “heavy” in the third quarter.

The Visayas, in particular, could experience yellow alerts during the period as it still relies on power from Mindanao.

Cacho said the Visayas “needs additional generation,” especially as it experiences a rise in electricity demand with the economic growth of Iloilo and Cebu.

Meanwhile, IEMOP sees a downward trend in power prices at the spot market. From Nov. 26 to Dec. 15, it said the average price at WESM had dropped by 9.6 percent to P3.99 per kilowatt hour (kWh).

Average supply and demand during the period reached 20,064 megawatts (MW) and 13,692 MW, respectively.