Nuclear power estimated to cost less than thermal power in 2040

This picture taken on August 6, 2024 shows the unit 7 reactor building at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power station in Kashiwazaki, in Japan’s Niigata prefecture. – Glinting in the sun by the world’s biggest nuclear plant, the Sea of Japan is calm now. But as it gears up to restart Kashiwazaki-Kariwa has a new tsunami wall, just in case. (Photo by Yuichi YAMAZAKI / Agence France-Presse)

Tokyo, Japan — Nuclear power is projected to be cheaper than thermal power in terms of generation costs as of fiscal 2040, Japan’s industry ministry said Monday.

Thermal power generation using liquefied natural gas, which the ministry’s previous projection in 2021 said would be the cheapest power source in fiscal 2030, will be weighed on swelling costs to deal with carbon dioxide emissions in the fight against global warming, the ministry said.

The latest estimate was presented to a working group of the natural resources and energy committee, which advises the industry minister, ahead of the government announcing a draft of the country’s revised basic energy plan on Tuesday.

The estimated cost advantage of nuclear power is expected to exert a significant influence over experts’ discussions on the power supply mix for fiscal 2040, which ends in March 2041, to be shown by the finalized revised plan.

According to the ministry’s projection, nuclear power will cost minimum 16.40-18.90 yen per kilowatt-hour, up from 14.50 yen under the previous estimate due to rising expenses for plant construction and safety measures. Meanwhile, a cost estimate for coping with accidents was lowered.

On the other hand, mainstay LNG thermal generation was forecast to cost 20.20-22.20 yen, about double the figure for fiscal 2030, reflecting costs to acquire CO2 emission quotas and higher-priced LNG.

The ministry came up with a bigger cost estimate for coal power generation, as it took into account spending on hydrogen and ammonia fuel to be used at coal thermal plants, as well as on carbon capture and storage technology.

Those cost calculations also reflected the impact of power output controls to mitigate oversupply of electricity generated from renewable energy sources.

As for business-use solar power, the lowest cost estimate is 15.30 yen. But if daytime output is curbed more frequently than the basic estimate, the cost may rise to 36.90 yen, up 17 yen from the estimate for fiscal 2030.