Equities may lift PSEi to 5,300 level in 2012

Local equities will likely outperform bonds this year and lift the Philippine Stock Exchange index to as high as 5,300, according to fund management firm First Metro Asset Management Inc. (FAMI).

In an investors briefing last week, FAMI president Gus Cosio said that this year would likely be much better for equities, unlike last year when bond returns exceeded stock market returns.

For its equity funds, Cosio said the company was targeting a return of 24 percent while the targeted return for fixed income funds was about 7-8 percent.

“There’s a surge in liquidity, a lot of wealth created and they choose not to go outside as returns here are better,” Cosio said. “We’re in a high net foreign buying region.”

The strong investor interest is seen supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals. In the case of the Philippines, he noted that the $77-billion gross international reserves build-up was now much higher than the country’s overall foreign debt stock.

In 2011, return on bond funds trumped those of equity-laced funds, reflective of the good performance of fixed income as an asset class given an uncertain global economic environment that lured investors to safer investments.

The First Metro Save and Learn Fixed Income Fund led all bond funds, generating a net return of 12.34 percent for  2011, based on figures from the Philippine Investment Funds Association as of end-December last year.

The First Metro Save and Learn Equity Fund ended 2011 with a net return of 8.18 percent, beating other stock funds.

“I think that with the liquidity surge, valuations will be a bit more demanding,” Cosio added in an interview after his presentation.  “If we averaged 13.5x PE (price-to-earnings ratio) last year, we will average 16x this year.”

A PE ratio of 16x means that investors are paying 16 times the amount of money a company is making in a given year.

As such, he said this stock market run-up could be stretched out to 5,200 to 5,300 this year. “That’s only about 4-5 percent from where we are,” he said.

During the forum, First Metro Investment Corp. president Robert Juanchito Dispo said the Philippines could be a major emerging economy like Indonesia and China two to three years down the road. He said the country could grow by at least 5 percent yearly, noting that the “bottom of the pyramid” was expanding and gaining affluence due to remittances, business process outsourcing, tourism, retailing and other fast-growing sectors.

Dispo said to expect that the PSEi would breach 5,000 this year would thus be a conservative assumption.

But among the risks that investors must be cautious of include the possibility of a deterioration in the fiscal situation of the eurozone as well as the US economy losing traction. But he said investors must be “ambitious” as the environment was filled with opportunities.

“Maintain an investment stance of optimism while being cautious,” he said.