Japan Sept consumer inflation seen at 8-year high, above BOJ’s target for 6th month: Reuters Poll

TOKYO – Japan’s core consumer inflation rate likely hit an eight-year high in September as firms sought to offset pressure from high raw material costs and a sliding yen by hiking their prices, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.

Other data next week is expected to show the trade deficit will come in at nearly $15 billion in September, as the yen’s sharp decline this year swelled import costs, according to the poll.

The Japanese currency briefly slid to a 32-year low against the U.S. dollar this week.

Economists forecast the nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food prices but includes energy, jumped 3 percent year-on-year in September.

“The main driver behind the increase are rising prices of food such as confectionary products and prepared foods,” said Rikuto Minami, an analyst at Mizuho Research & Technologies.

The increase would mark the fastest rise since September 2014. The forecast strongly suggested that core CPI would stay above the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target for a sixth consecutive month.

The Bank of Japan will hold its next policy meeting on Oct. 27-28. It has kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1 percent and maintained its pledge to guide 10-year government bond yields around 0 percent despite broadening price pressures, bucking a global trend of aggressive policy tightening.

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has repeatedly vowed to keep the BOJ’s stimulus effort intact, because any cost-push rise in inflation would be temporary.

Separate data is likely to show Japan suffered a trade deficit of 2.167 trillion yen ($14.70 billion) in September due to high import costs that are being aggravated by the weakening yen, according to the poll.

It would be the 14th straight month of deficits and follow a record 2.817 trillion yen shortfall in August. Imports by value likely surged 45.0% in September from a year earlier, outpacing a 27.1 percent rise in exports, the poll showed.

The government will release the consumer price data on Oct. 21 at 8:30 a.m. (Oct. 20, 2330 GMT) and the trade balance data on Oct. 20 at 8:50 a.m. (Oct. 19, 2350 GMT).

($1 = 147.4000 yen)