No progress seen in oil dependence until 2030

The Philippines is expected to continue being largely dependent on oil imports until 2030, as demand for and consumption of power is expected to surge over the next two decades, outpacing the growth in electricity generation.

In its latest report titled “Energy Trends in Developing Asia: Priorities for a Low-Carbon Future,” the US Agency for International Development’s Regional Development Mission for Asia (USAID/RDMA) noted that the Philippines will maintain its current level of import dependency, at about 95 percent—the highest level among the six countries it covered for the report.

According to USAID, China will hike its net imports to 75 percent in 2030 from just under 50 percent in 2007, while India will rise from just under 75 percent to 94 percent.

Indonesia will likewise increase from 30 percent in 2007 to 100 percent in 2030; Thailand from 60 percent to 85 percent; and Vietnam is expected to transition from a net oil exporting country to eventually importing a net of more than 30 percent of its oil by 2030.

“This increasing reliance on imports from developing Asian economies will put increasing strain on the sources of global supply, leading to an increase in energy security problems and related geopolitical tensions,” USAID said.

To help address the rising share in global energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions, the Philippines and the rest of the countries in Asia must scale up the use of clean energy resources. Doing so is likewise expected to help address energy security concerns stemming from the rapid rise of price-volatile oil imports.

USAID even tagged clean energy as the “future area of growth for Asia’s energy sector.”