What flying will be like postpandemic

When airplanes hijacked by terrorists brought down New York City’s iconic World Trade twin towers in 2001, it took the US airline industry about 3.5 years to return to business levels seen prior to those 9/11 terrorist attacks.

It would probably take just as long for the aviation industry to reclaim the levels seen before the COVID-19 pandemic, said Maybank ATR senior economist Hak In Chua.

“Tourism may not be returning anytime to the normalcy that we saw a year ago and this will change the future of air travel,” Chua said during Maybank ATR’s recent “Seeing Through the Lens: A Global and Local Market Outlook Forum.”

“Tighter border controls may stay a bit longer than we wish it to be,” he said.

In the same way that the 9/11 attacks triggered a tightening of aviation travel requirements and safety measures—from X-ray screenings to tougher rules on baggage, including carry-on liquid items—air travel is seen to be more challenging to passengers, operators and regulators in the years to come.

Even with COVID-19 vaccines around the corner, the economist said it would take time to vaccinate a critical mass of people.

“Airports will still introduce testing and some [jurisdictions] may want to stick to quarantine requirements. Some may want proof of not just taking the test but taking the vaccine,” he said.

Furthermore, he said the adoption of technology would likely lessen the need to travel. He sees more companies adopting work-from-home arrangements permanently or at the very least, offering flexibility to their employees. This trend is in turn seen to allow companies to give up expensive office spaces, while improving workers’ work-life balance.

“Most of us have accepted that life will not return to prepandemic normal,” the economist said.

Another postpandemic norm would likely be the accelerated digitalization and tech adoption, he said. He noted Southeast Asian internet users have increased by a whopping 40 million when the lockdowns began.

After the pandemic, he said the industrial powerhouses would continue to diversify their supply chain. “The pandemic has proven that you don’t have to be dependent on any one country,” he said, referring to how enterprises that were dependent on China’s output suffered when the borders were shut down.

“This pandemic has also shown wide cracks in the safety nets among many countries,” the economist said, adding that this resulted in self-reflection across nations to strengthen their systems. At the same time, the pandemic had increased the self-sufficiency drive of nations, whether in stocking up on food or pharmaceutical items, he added.

Moving forward, the role of science and the government would increase, whether in building infrastructure or taking over struggling companies, particularly in the aviation sector, he said. This, in turn, would raise the question of whether taxes would rise across various jurisdictions to allow governments to finance higher spending.

Chua noted, however, COVID-19 spending in the Philippines was at only 1.6 percent of gross domestic product versus Singapore’s over 10 percent, Thailand’s 6 percent and Vietnam’s 3.6 percent. INQ