GDP to contract by up to 4% in 2020

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the Philippine economy is seen contracting by up to 4 percent this year—the fastest pace in 35 years, even as President Duterte’s chief economic manager said the country was poised for a “big bounce back” next year.

Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III told the Bloomberg Emerging and Frontier Forum 2020 webcast Thursday night that it helped that the Duterte administration had earlier on embarked on a comprehensive tax reform program that raised revenues while the government remained prudent in its borrowings, giving the Philippines fiscal space to fight the health and socioeconomic crises caused by COVID-19.

While the pandemic raged on, Dominguez said it would be important to “keep your powder dry.”

“We don’t know how long this crisis is going to last. So you have to have enough reserves for a second or third wave,” Dominguez said.

He said domestic commercial borrowings through the sale of government securities as well as foreign loans would finance COVID-19 response amid a recession.

“We see that our economy is going to be hit hard—probably, we will shrink by maybe about three-and-a-half percent this year. But we’re ready for a big bounce back next year,” Dominguez said.

A 3.5-percent full-year gross domestic product contraction will be the deepest recession since GDP shrank by 6.9 percent in 1985.

Dominguez’s outlook already exceeded the economic team’s projection in May of 2 to 3.4 percent GDP contraction.

Dominguez said the Philippine government was moving quickly to support poor families and displaced workers through dole outs, while also resuming business confidence.

President Duterte’s representative in the policymaking Monetary Board, Dominguez said the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ surprise decision earlier that day to cut key interest rates by a hefty 50 basis points was made to “bring back confidence to our bankers and consumers,” citing that 75 percent of the domestic economy was driven by consumption. —Ben O. de Vera