PH still not free from El Niño this year

The chance of the El Niño climate phenomenon developing this year is twice the normal probability at this time of the year as sea temperatures are higher than usual, according to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

“The bureau’s (outlook) remains at El Niño ‘watch,’ meaning there is around a 50-percent chance—double the normal likelihood—of El Niño developing in 2017,” the BoM said.

The agency said in its latest fortnightly forecast update that surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific Ocean remained half a degree warmer than average over the past month.

The reading is below threshold of 0.8 degree Celsius, higher than average, which is when an El Niño occurrence is observed.

The agency said further warming was unlikely in the coming two weeks, and that the condition was still “neutral”—there was neither El Niño which brings dry conditions to some areas like the Philippines, nor La Niña with its attendant excessive rainfall.

“With the tropical Pacific Ocean warmer than average, and around half the international climate models reaching El Niño levels later in the year, development of El Niño in 2017 cannot be ruled out,” the BoM said.

“However virtually all models now suggest less warming is likely to occur compared to their previous outlooks, indicating any (El Niño) event may be weak,” the agency added.

American experts at the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) concur, saying that neutral and El Niño were “nearly equally favored” during the Northern Hemisphere summer and fall of 2017.

“Most models predict the onset of El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere summer (or June to August),” the NOAA said. “However…the (sea surface) warmth may not last long enough to qualify as an El Niño episode.”

The American agency said that, compared to the outlook issued in April, the forecaster consensus reflected slightly lower chances of El Niño at 45 percent.

The 2015-2016 El Niño, which experts considered the third strongest occurrence recorded, contributed in driving down Philippine agricultural production by 4.5 percent as the prolonged dry spell ravaged billions of pesos worth of crops.