Inflation seen up in June on higher tuition

INFLATION likely picked up in June to a range of 1.7 to 2.1 percent on higher tuition and food costs, economists polled by the Inquirer said last week.

Earlier, the Department of Finance’s chief economist, Undersecretary Gil S. Beltran, said inflation likely inched up by 1.8 percent year-on-year last month due to “higher food prices [largely due to vegetables] and possibly faster price increase in the education sub-group.”

Inflation rose 1.6 percent in May and 1.2 percent in June last year.

Also last week, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor Amando M. Tetangco gave a forecast range of 1.5 to 2.4 percent.

“Upside inflation pressures could come from the increase in tuition as well as in rice and vegetable prices which could be partly offset by the decline in electricity rates and domestic oil prices for the month,” Tetangco said in a text message to reporters.

According to reports, the Commission on Higher Education approved tuition fee hikes for 304 private universities and colleges for this school year, while the Department of Education green-lighted 1,232 private elementary and high schools to collect higher tuition fees.

Banco De Oro Unibank Inc. chief market strategist Jonathan L. Ravelas said consumer prices likely rose by 1.7 percent in June.

DBS Bank Ltd. economist Gundy Cahyadi said inflation was expected to have “ticked up more markedly” to 1.8 percent “as effects from low oil price dissipate,” adding that “food prices have also ticked up quite a bit, similar to what’s seen in the region, partly due to the weather.”

Bank of the Philippine Islands’ Emilio S. Neri Jr. and Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa both projected June inflation to have had accelerated by 1.9 percent. Neri noted of “smaller annual decline of petroleum prices and the usual uptick in rental rates and tuition as the new school year began,” while Mapa also cited higher food prices on the back of the effect of the prolonger dry spell due to El Niño crop production.

Land Bank of the Philippines market economist Guian Angelo S. Dumalagan attributed his forecast of about 2 percent to seasonal factors, including the start of classes, as well as higher food costs caused by El Niño.

Metrobank research analyst Pauline May Ann E. Revillas’ forecast was also 2 percent, “driven by the surge in food prices, steady oil prices, and low base last year.”

The forecast of Jeff Ng, Standard Chartered Bank economist for Asia, was likewise 2 percent, also citing an uptick in food prices as well as bottoming out energy inflation.

For Ateneo de Manila University economics professor Alvin P. Ang, inflation rose 2.1 percent “due to the opening of classes expenditures which affect a number of other items including housing rental and food.”