Q1 GDP likely faster on election spending, infra

Election-related spending on top of the faster rollout of infrastructure projects ahead of the national polls likely accelerated economic growth in the first quarter, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Emmanuel F. Esguerra said yesterday.

Esguerra told reporters that economic expansion during the January to March period was “certainly” better than the 5-percent growth posted in the first quarter of last year.

“It is a given. 2016 is an election year. Whether you like it or not, there is an additional boost on spending,” said Esguerra, who is also Director General of the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda).

The Neda chief cited that previous studies on the impact of national polls showed increases in the gross domestic product (GDP) by between 0.5 percentage point and 1 percentage point during election years.

Manila-based multilateral lender Asian Development Bank (ADB) last week said election-related spending was seen boosting the mass media, services and transportation sectors.

Esguerra said the impact of election spending on these industries would likely have multiplier effects on their employees, hence increasing their consumption.

Last February, the Cabinet-level, interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee cut the GDP growth projection for 2016 to 6.8-7.8 percent from 7-8 percent previously, mainly due to a slower global economy.

In 2015, the Philippine economy expanded by 5.8 percent—the slowest annual GDP growth rate since 2011’s 3.7 percent. It was also below the government’s official target of 7 to 8 percent.