FAO cuts global rice output estimate
THE FORECAST global output of milled rice for the July 2015-June 2016 crop year was cut further by 2 million tons to 491 million tons, according to the latest outlook from the Food and Agriculture Organization.
This follows a cut of 8 million tons, to 493 million tons, in the previous monthly update made last October.
Based on the monthly Market Monitor report of the Agricultural Market Information System (Amis), the reduction was due to continued deteriorating prospects in Asia, partly due to the strong El Niño weather phenomenon.
“Rice conditions remain mixed in part due to the current El Niño affecting large parts of Asia,” the FAO-administered inter-agency body said.
For example, conditions are generally favorable in China, Vietnam and Indonesia.
On the other hand, conditions are poor in Thailand due to a lack of precipitation, shortage of irrigation water and pests.
“In the Philippines, harvest of the wet season crop is almost complete,” the Amis said. “Crop damage caused by several typhoons has been recorded in the northern regions, which may result in lower yields.”
Further, the Amis said the forecast trade volume for calendar 2016 was raised again, partly due to anticipated larger imports by the Philippines.
As of this month, the projected rice trade for next year is pegged at 450.2 million tons, “raised somewhat” from the 450 million tons forecast last month.
This was based “on larger anticipated imports by the Philippines, China, Colombia and Nigeria,” the Amis said.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the Philippines’ stock of milled rice inched up to 2.2 million tons as of Oct. 1 as farms across the nation started harvesting the year’s main crop.
The national inventory—which increased by 13 percent or 260,000 tons over the previous month—was good for 65 days’ consumption.
Data from the PSA show that the National Food Authority’s stock decreased by 50,000 tons to settle at 750,000 tons.
As of Oct. 1, the NFA’s stock was good for 22 days’ consumption, still well above its minimum mandated volume of 15 days’ supply.
Also, according to the PSA, the country’s ability to produce its own supply of rice fell to 92 percent of domestic demand in 2014.
