Luzon seen in another tight power spot in third quarter

THE CRITICAL power situation this summer is almost over with no major outages in Luzon so far, yet another period of tight supply looms over the third quarter.

Industry data show that a number of power plants that avoided maintenance shutdowns during the summer months will have to undergo such activities from June onwards.

Energy experts said there should be enough reserves to avoid outages or brownouts. The months of July and August are particularly tight in terms of supply, they said.

Power demand in Luzon is seen to reach 8,680 MW in July. Electricity supply for that month is seen to reach 9,719 MW. That leaves 1,039 MW of reserves.

August demand is seen to reach 8,647 MW while supply would reach 9,191 MW. That leaves just 550 MW of reserves.

The forecast for August means the Luzon grid may be on yellow alert, a condition wherein the reserve is below 647 MW. That is equivalent to the highest power plant online, which is one unit of the 1,218 MW Sual coal power plant in Pangasinan.

The power stations to go on maintenance shutdown are the 367.5-MW Pagbilao Unit 1 (May 30 to June 28), 250-MW San Lorenzo Mod. 50 (June 13 to 14), 250-MW San Lorenzo Mod. 60 (June 20 to 21), 250-MW Sta. Rita Mod. 40 (June 24 to 28), 250-MW Sta. Rita Mod. 40 (June 24 to 28), 300-MW Ilijan Unit 1 (June 29 to Aug. 5), 367.5-MW Pagbilao Unit 2 (July 4 to Aug.2), 250-MW Sta. Rita Mod. 30 (July 4 to 5), 250-MW Sta. Rita Mod. 10 (July 11 to 12), 250-MW Sta. Rita Mod. 20 (July 18 to 19).

Manila Electric Co. (Meralco), which has the most significant franchise area in Luzon in terms of customer network, is prepared to deal with the tight situation, company president Oscar S. Reyes said in a briefing.

“In the end we have to meet whatever the consumer needs. It’s demand management and in the supply side, adding more capacity; it’s having ILP (Interruptible Load Program), and hopefully power plant outages do not come at the same time,” Reyes said.

He also noted that Meralco had signed up 823MW of ILP capacity.

Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla earlier said Luzon and Visayas will still be able to serve present demand with their available power supply, avoiding outages in the two grids.

“The Department of Energy has a running four-week estimate which we update regularly. So far, with the temperature not as high as anticipated, and with people cooperating by saving power, Luzon seems OK,” Petilla said.

“Since Luzon is interconnected with Visayas, the two can share power, so it follows that Visayas is also OK,” Petilla said.