PH rice output seen hitting record high
Philippine rice output in the 2014-2015 marketing season that started this month is expected to reach yet another record volume, even as the global production growth forecast was trimmed due to the looming El Niño phenomenon.
In its latest rice market report, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said it foresees production in the Philippines to expand by 1 percent to 19 million tons of paddy rice, equivalent to 12.4 million tons when milled.
The FAO said this forecast was largely based on expectations of continued expansion of farm areas planted to rice, driven by high prices and helped by government support to the domestic sector.
“The forecast remains tentative, however, as the season is still at early stages in the country, having also opened this year under the threat of possible El Niño-induced weather anomalies,” the FAO said.
Following international market convention, the United Nations agency makes assessments and forecasts within a “season” that starts in July and ends in June the following year.
The FAO cited a warning from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), which said that the last quarter of 2014 could see below-average rains, especially over Luzon and Visayas and more generally in the month of December.
“Weather concerns have already prompted officials to announce a set of measures to mitigate possible negative consequences on crop production,” it said.
As for the just-ended 2013-2014 season, the FAO noted that the government pegged output at a record 18.75 million tons of palay or 12.3 million tons of milled rice—which was 3 percent higher than the previous season.
Globally, the FAO eased its 2014-2015 output growth forecast to 0.52 percent from 0.54 percent, citing slow arrival of seasonal rains as well as the threat of a long dry spell.
The agency now expects worldwide output at 750.9 million tons of paddy rice, which is 120,000 tons less than the previous projection.
For Asia alone, output is now expected to grow by only 0.16 percent to 679 million tons, which will still depend on whether seasonal rains deliver. The previous forecast pencilled in a growth of 0.27 percent.
