DOE sees power supply tightening in Luzon in ’15

Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines—What is the price of growth? A potential power crunch in Luzon as industries and people use more electricity.

Energy Secretary Carlos Jericho Petilla said his department was working on various options to ensure that the country’s most economically prolific island avoids short-term brownouts come 2015.

Economic expansion, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), accelerated by 7.6 percent in the first six months of 2013 from 6.4 percent in the first half of 2012. Growth in the second quarter, alone, hit 7.5 percent compared to year-ago level, sustaining above 7-percent expansion since the third quarter of 2012, according to the National Economic and Development Authority.

“While we are all praying to sustain this, we are worried,” Petilla said at the sidelines of an energy forum.

Traditional growth driver services (including BPOs) and industry (including manufacturing) entail power-guzzling activities.

Mindanao is on tight power supply now but could have a surplus in the long run if all projects come onstream, Petilla said.

“We are more worried about Luzon for 2015,” he said.

Luzon leads business activities and consumption as it hosts the National Capital Region and the country’s richest cities.

The Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that if a 7.5- percent growth continues and no measures are adopted between now and 2015, Luzon is facing power one-hour outages during the peak hours of 11 a.m., 2 p.m. and 7 p.m.

Petilla noted that, two years ago, the Philippines was projecting only 6 percent GDP growth. As such, the government approved a number of power generation projects that would cover the requirements of BPOs, factories, households and others by 2016 onward.

“Those constructed since last year or starting this year will not be finished until three years from now. The year we want to bridge (power supply in) is 2015,” the energy chief said.

Among the cards up DOE’s sleeve are the proposed electricity reserves market that could be up by end-2013, the contingency plans for Malampaya’s annual shutdown for maintenance and Interruptible Load Programs where qualified businesses can get paid for using their own power generating facilities during peak hours so distribution utilities can serve other customers.

There are studies on gas-fired plants that can be built in 12 to 18 months, as well as modular co-generation projects.

Also, the DOE will mandate power plants to avoid doing their maintenance work in the summer and reschedule them during the rainy season, when baseload hydroelectric power plants perform best.

Transmission superhighway operator National Grid Corp. of the Philippines is also working on securing contingency power reserves in case generation output drops suddenly or a major plant trips.