WASHINGTON-Turmoil in the Arab world could throw the global economic recovery off track if it gets worse, the head of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, said Saturday in Washington.
“A worsening of conditions in the Middle East and North Africa could derail global growth,” he told the steering committee of the International Monetary Fund.
However, he said, economic disruptions “directly associated” with the political turmoil in the Arab world, as well as Japan’s earthquake disaster “should have minimal impacts at the global level,” he said.
According to the World Bank, the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have slashed about three percentage points off projections of gross domestic product growth made at the beginning of the year.
Zoellick said GDP growth in Egypt and Tunisia could come in at around 2.5 and 1.5 percent.
“If oil prices were to rise sharply and durably – either because of increased uncertainty or due to a significant disruption to oil supply – global growth could slow by between 0.3 and 1.2 percentage points in 2011 and 2012, respectively.”
The World Bank chief recalled that oil and agricultural prices in the past few weeks have suffered from “even higher volatility than has become the recent norm,” mainly driven by the disaster in Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, and the unrest in Arab countries.