PH, other Asia markets seen to lead growth in ’13

The global economy may have to feed off the optimism and good fortunes of emerging markets like the Philippines next year following a grim fourth quarter of 2012, according to the International Institute of Finance.

The Washington DC-based think tank said in a report that global growth would “decelerate somewhat in the fourth quarter,” and push full-year global growth to 2.5 percent, down from 2.9 percent in 2011 and 4 percent in 2010.

But gross domestic product “growth releases for Q3 (third quarter) have been surprisingly strong so far,” the IIF said. “Those countries that have yet to report Q3 will tend to be the weaker ones.”

Data from the National Statistical Coordination Board showed that the Philippines’ GDP grew by 5.9 percent year on year in the second quarter, easing from 6.4 percent in the first quarter.

Third-quarter results are scheduled to be released later this month.

“With the exception of Asia, our view remains that Q3 results contain a lot of noise as opposed to signals.” the IIF said. “On balance, underlying global growth is probably accelerating, although this is only a marginal gain from a very subdued pace.”

Even then, the think tank said it would expect better numbers for the global economy in 2013, led by the emerging markets.

“Our projections for 2013 tend to be somewhat more optimistic for high-growth countries,” it added. “This applies to a number of Asian countries, such as the Philippines.”

The IIF expects Philippine GDP growth to settle at 5.7 percent this year and improve to 6.5 percent in 2013.

Regarding the peso, it expects it to trade at 41.10 against the US dollar by yearend, strengthening further to 41:$1 in 2013. In 2010, the peso traded at 44:$1, while in 2011, it stood at 43.60:$1.

IIF data also showed that in 2010, the US dollar was worth P103.30 in 2007 pesos. In 2011, it was worth P103.50.