Philippine exports were expected to have turned around in April after the 1.2-percent drop registered in March, although the growth figure would likely be close to zero, according to DBS Group.
The financial service provider said in a research note that a pick-up on external demand for local goods in the second semester “does not appear probable.”
DBS said this given signs of worsening in three major global economies, which were the country’s top export markets—China, Europe and the United States.
It said demand for Philippine goods within Asia, particularly from China, had been crucial in making up for the decrease in shipments to Europe, which started in 2010.
The value of Philippine exports to the United States stayed “roughly stable.”
Even then, the Singapore-based group believes that demand from the US may have already peaked in March.
“Notably, trade and sales data across the region have softened considerably and the Philippines’ exports are unlikely to buck the trend,” DBS said.
Export “growth should inch back into positive territory after contracting in March,” it added. “However, the export value is expected to be flat.”
According to the National Statistics Office, export receipts fell to $4.302 billion in March from $4.43 billion in February and $4.356 billion in March 2011.
DBS noted that the surge in exports in the first two months of 2012 could be attributed mainly to inventory restocking after an extended period of drawdown in 2011.
“Against this backdrop, growth concerns are again back to the fore despite an impressive 6.4-percent year-on-year GDP [gross domestic product] growth registered in the first quarter.
Last week, DBS said it had raised its growth projection for the Philippine economy this year to 5.3 percent from 4.2 percent previously.
The revision, it said, was due to the strong performance in the first quarter, which was higher than the 4.3-percent growth that analysts had projected.