PSEi could end tough 2026 near 6,500
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) could finish 2026 within the 6,241 to 6,487 range, according to Philstocks Financial Inc., even as persistent economic headwinds keep the local market under pressure.
In its updated outlook, Philstocks said its statistical model placed the PSEi at 6,386 under its base-case scenario. Its worst-case scenario puts the benchmark at 6,241, while the best case sees it reaching 6,487 by year-end.
READ: PSEi rebounds above 6,100 on bargain hunting
The forecast, however, would still leave the PSEi below its 6,611.24 close on Feb. 27, just before the Middle East war erupted.
Philstocks said the market had endured a difficult first eight months as slowing economic growth, elevated inflation, and a weaker peso dampened sentiment.
On a fundamental basis, Philstocks estimated the market should trade between 6,380.40 and 6,628.18, assuming earnings growth of 3 percent to 7 percent.
It expects companies to deliver 3 percent bottom-line growth despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, with growth potentially reaching 7 percent if conditions improve.
Taken together, its fundamental, statistical, and technical analyses, however, gave a wider year-end range of 6,000 to 6,628.18.
The brokerage remains cautious. It said the market has turned bearish after peaking at 6,488.35 on July 21 and falling below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages.
“For now, the local market may consolidate within the 6,000 – 6,150 range. If positive catalysts show up, the market may rise above 6,150, leaving 6,400 as the next resistance,” Philstocks said.
If more negative catalysts show up, however, the market may fall below the 6,000 mark, leaving the 5,800 level as the next support.
The outlook comes as Philstocks expects Philippine economic growth to settle at just 2.1 percent to 3.1 percent this year.
Inflation, meanwhile, is projected at 5.6 percent to 5.7 percent, with price pressures likely to remain elevated due to risks from El Niño, the weak peso, high electricity rates, and elevated global oil prices.
READ: PH inflation seen staying above 6% in 2026
Philstocks also expects the peso to trade between 61.75 and 62.75 against the dollar for the rest of the year.
Given the bearish bias and downside risks, Philstocks advised investors to focus on defensive companies, particularly consumer-oriented and utility stocks.
It also sees opportunities in telecommunications and select banks, while recommending caution when trading mining stocks despite the sector’s strong momentum. INQ
