Marcos gov’t lowers GDP growth targets

The Marcos administration has lowered its macroeconomic targets through 2030 and raised the proposed 2027 national budget to P7.2 trillion as it adopted a revised fiscal framework to navigate growing economic headwinds.

In a document released by the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) lowered its economic growth target for 2026 to 3.5 to 4.5 percent from the previous 5 to 6 percent.

READ: OECD cuts 2026 PH GDP growth forecast to 3.2%

For 2027 to 2030, the growth target was likewise reduced to 5 to 6 percent. Previously, the government had targeted 5.5 to 6.5 percent for 2027 and 6 to 7 percent for 2028 to 2030.

“The issues surrounding alleged anomalies in flood control projects last year and, more recently, the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran made a drastic impact on the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals,” the DBM said.

“These further constrained the NG’s ability to meet its revenue targets, sustain economic growth, address key development gaps and consolidate gains from past structural reforms and poverty reduction efforts,” it added, noting that the revised assumptions also factored in the threat of El Niño.

Inflation is now projected to average 6 to 7 percent in 2026 and 4 to 5 percent in 2027, sharply higher than the previous assumption of 2 to 4 percent. The original target is projected to return from 2028 to 2030.

The DBCC also revised its revenue assumptions.

READ: DBCC cuts PH 2026 growth target to 3.5-4.5%

For 2026, revenues are now projected at P4.807 trillion, slightly lower than the previous P4.824 trillion. Collections are expected to rise to P5.205 trillion in 2027 from the earlier estimate of P5.122 trillion.

Meanwhile, the DBCC raised its budget deficit targets, saying the revised figures reflect a “realistic fiscal stance, while remaining fully aligned with growth-enhancing fiscal consolidation.”

The budget deficit for 2026 is now projected at P1.658 trillion, equivalent to 5.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), from the previous P1.611 trillion or 5.3 percent of GDP.

For 2027, the deficit is expected to reach P1.694 trillion or 5.1 percent of GDP, higher than the previous P1.589 trillion or 4.8 percent. INQ

Government spending is also expected to increase, with expenditures set at P6.465 trillion in 2026 from P6.438 trillion previously; P6.9 trillion in 2027 from P6.711 trillion; P7.246 trillion in 2028 from P7.108 trillion; and P7.614 trillion in 2029 from P7.510 trillion.

For 2030, however, spending was revised down to P7.798 trillion from the earlier P7.939 trillion.

The DBM also said that the proposed 2027 national budget has been set at P7.2 trillion, equivalent to 21.7 percent of GDP, representing a 6 percent increase from this year’s P6.793-trillion spending program.

“The proposed budget for next year will focus on programs, activities and projects that seek to create better opportunities and address the needs of the Filipino people, helping ensure a more resilient and secure future for all,” the DBM said.