PH rice imports seen rising on strong demand
MANILA, Philippines – The Philippines is expected to import more rice as strong demand outpaces lower domestic output.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated the country’s rice imports would rise by 2 percent to 5.2 million MT in marketing year 2026-2027, up from its previous forecast of 5.1 million MT.
Per the foreign agency, the marketing year begins in July.
READ: Super El Niño, global shocks and PH’s rising rice import risk
Lower domestic rice output and sustained demand growth are driving the increase, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in its updated Grain and Feed report.
The USDA-FAS said the price ceiling of P50 per kilogram on imported rice and the price-indexed tariff mechanism could temper rice import arrivals.
The report noted that the price cap implemented in May and the current tariff scheme anchored on prevailing global rice prices have jacked up the landed cost and discouraged traders from bringing in additional rice imports.
“The net effect is that the supply gap created by lower production is absorbed partly through higher imports and partly through a drawdown in ending stocks,” it said.
The Philippines has so far imported 2.42 million MT of rice as of June 11, data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed.
READ: Rice imports rose 15% in January to May
The USDA-FAS cut its milled rice output forecast by 0.8 percent to 12.3 million MT from 12.4 million MT and expects harvested area to shrink 1.1% to 4.65 million hectares.
“Rising input costs continue to weigh on area planted, as high fuel and fertilizer prices reduce farmer profitability and limit the incentive to expand planted area,” it said.
“While the [Department of Agriculture] continues to provide fuel subsidies and partial seed and fertilizer support to farmers, farmer contacts report that these measures only partially offset the burden of elevated input costs,” it added.
According to the report, prices of urea, the most commonly used fertilizer, have surged by over 55 percent in June from the same period a year ago.
The USDA-FAS also said the farm-gate prices of both fancy and other rice varieties declined in April following a steady rise from September 2025 through March this year, “further dampening farmer planting intentions and contributing to the forecast reduction in area harvested.”
The foreign agency also said reduced dam water levels pose an additional and significant risk to production in key lowland areas, noting that four major irrigation dams are running well below their normal high-water levels.
“Lack of sufficient rainfall substantially reduced water levels in major dam reservoirs critical to irrigating rice and corn producing regions,” it added.
The USDA-FAS said irrigation shortfalls and drought are compounding the impact of a looming El Niño that could persist until early 2027.
Meanwhile, milled rice consumption is pegged at 17.65 million MT, unchanged from the past estimate, with demand driven by population growth. /pai INQ
